Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
AZ 4, SD 9. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
AZ 4, SD 9
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
4 – 9final score
13total runs
41% → 100%SD win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Soroka, Michael vs Vásquez, Randy · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
AZ 58.6%SD 41.4%
4.37 – 3.39mean score
7.75mean total
56%NRFI
11.4%extra innings
6.6 / 4.05starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
AZ (gold) vs SD (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
AZ per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nootbaar, Lars | 4.848 | 1.083 | 0.12 | 1.671 | 0.538 | 1.106 | 0.415 |
| Marte, Ketel | 4.733 | 1.14 | 0.146 | 1.848 | 0.358 | 0.757 | 0.52 |
| Perdomo, Geraldo | 4.612 | 1.117 | 0.066 | 1.52 | 0.526 | 0.683 | 0.418 |
| Arenado, Nolan | 4.513 | 1.101 | 0.201 | 1.966 | 0.344 | 0.957 | 0.676 |
| Carroll, Corbin | 4.402 | 0.98 | 0.126 | 1.65 | 0.405 | 1.062 | 0.512 |
| Smith, Pavin | 4.288 | 0.919 | 0.102 | 1.376 | 0.339 | 1.007 | 0.441 |
| Tawa, Tim | 4.177 | 0.973 | 0.105 | 1.498 | 0.329 | 1.093 | 0.43 |
| McCann, James | 4.068 | 1.027 | 0.138 | 1.666 | 0.226 | 1.088 | 0.49 |
| Lawlar, Jordan | 3.965 | 1.017 | 0.13 | 1.647 | 0.273 | 1.114 | 0.465 |
Projected batting lines
SD per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris, Dustin | 4.527 | 1.198 | 0.051 | 1.597 | 0.316 | 0.984 | 0.315 |
| Machado, Manny | 4.416 | 0.872 | 0.148 | 1.518 | 0.402 | 1.199 | 0.442 |
| France, Ty | 4.31 | 1.157 | 0.149 | 1.896 | 0.284 | 1.151 | 0.516 |
| Sheets, Gavin | 4.206 | 0.887 | 0.146 | 1.54 | 0.376 | 1.089 | 0.473 |
| Hays, Austin | 4.11 | 1.051 | 0.088 | 1.528 | 0.22 | 1.197 | 0.416 |
| Cronenworth, Jake | 4.003 | 0.862 | 0.059 | 1.187 | 0.308 | 1.128 | 0.313 |
| Fermin, Freddy | 3.891 | 0.785 | 0.058 | 1.107 | 0.281 | 1.042 | 0.3 |
| Song, Sung-Mun | 3.774 | 0.757 | 0.049 | 1.016 | 0.34 | 0.996 | 0.268 |
| Bowen, Jase | 3.65 | 0.713 | 0.093 | 1.163 | 0.196 | 1.462 | 0.345 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Nootbaar, Lars vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT GB
Marte, Ketel vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT AIR
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Harris, Dustin vs Soroka, Michael: OUT GB
Machado, Manny vs Soroka, Michael: OUT AIR
France, Ty vs Soroka, Michael: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Arenado, Nolan vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT AIR
Carroll, Corbin vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT GB
Smith, Pavin vs Vásquez, Randy: 3B
Tawa, Tim vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Sheets, Gavin vs Soroka, Michael: OUT AIR
Hays, Austin vs Soroka, Michael: 1B
Cronenworth, Jake vs Soroka, Michael: OUT AIR
Fermin, Freddy vs Soroka, Michael: K
— Top 3 —
McCann, James vs Vásquez, Randy: K
Lawlar, Jordan vs Vásquez, Randy: K
Nootbaar, Lars vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Song, Sung-Mun vs Soroka, Michael: OUT AIR
Bowen, Jase vs Soroka, Michael: K
Harris, Dustin vs Soroka, Michael: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Marte, Ketel vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT GB
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Vásquez, Randy: BB
Arenado, Nolan vs Vásquez, Randy: K
Carroll, Corbin vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Machado, Manny vs Soroka, Michael: BB
France, Ty vs Soroka, Michael: OUT GB
Sheets, Gavin vs Soroka, Michael: K
Hays, Austin vs Soroka, Michael: BB
Cronenworth, Jake vs Soroka, Michael: K
— Top 5 —
Smith, Pavin vs Vásquez, Randy: K
Tawa, Tim vs Vásquez, Randy: K
McCann, James vs Vásquez, Randy: BB
Lawlar, Jordan vs Vásquez, Randy: K
— Bottom 5 —
Fermin, Freddy vs Soroka, Michael: 1B
Song, Sung-Mun vs Soroka, Michael: 1B
Bowen, Jase vs Soroka, Michael: K
Harris, Dustin vs Soroka, Michael: BB
Machado, Manny vs Soroka, Michael: 1B +2 runs (0-2)
France, Ty vs Soroka, Michael: OUT GB
Sheets, Gavin vs Soroka, Michael: 1B +1 run (0-3)
Hays, Austin vs Soroka, Michael: K
— Top 6 —
Nootbaar, Lars vs Vásquez, Randy: BB
Marte, Ketel vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT AIR
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Vásquez, Randy: OUT GB
Arenado, Nolan vs Vásquez, Randy: HR +2 runs (2-3)
Carroll, Corbin vs Morejon, Adrian: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Cronenworth, Jake vs Soroka, Michael: K
Fermin, Freddy vs Ginkel, Kevin: OUT AIR
Song, Sung-Mun vs Ginkel, Kevin: K
— Top 7 —
Smith, Pavin vs Morejon, Adrian: OUT GB
Tawa, Tim vs Morejon, Adrian: 2B
McCann, James vs Morejon, Adrian: 1B +1 run (3-3)
Lawlar, Jordan vs Morejon, Adrian: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Bowen, Jase vs Ginkel, Kevin: K
Harris, Dustin vs Ginkel, Kevin: K
Machado, Manny vs Morillo, Juan: 1B
France, Ty vs Morillo, Juan: BB
Sheets, Gavin vs Morillo, Juan: 1B +1 run (3-4)
Hays, Austin vs Morillo, Juan: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Nootbaar, Lars vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT GB
Marte, Ketel vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT GB
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Cronenworth, Jake vs Morillo, Juan: OUT GB
Fermin, Freddy vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT AIR
Song, Sung-Mun vs Garcia, Brandyn: 1B
Bowen, Jase vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
— Top 9 —
Arenado, Nolan vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT AIR
Carroll, Corbin vs Miller, Mason: OUT AIR
Smith, Pavin vs Miller, Mason: OUT GB