Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 30 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 208 lb |
| Debut | 2020-09-12 |
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks
Pavin Smith
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 208 lb · Age 30
Club Arizona Diamondbacks
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 158 | 26 | 37 | 9 | 1 | .270 | .348 | .547 | .895 |
| 2025 | 288 | 36 | 63 | 8 | 2 | .258 | .362 | .434 | .796 |
| 2026 | 122 | 12 | 20 | 3 | 2 | .183 | .262 | .294 | .556 |
| 7 Seasons | 1662 | 199 | 353 | 48 | 9 | .242 | .325 | .398 | .723 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
30
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.314 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.284
0.302
0.319
0.335
wOBA
0.239
0.263
0.289
0.315
0.339
ISO
0.085
0.109
0.136
0.162
0.187
K%
18.9%
21.1%
23.5%
26.0%
28.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
32
-36 vs proj
Exit velocity87.1
42
Hard-hit%37.5%
47
-19 vs proj
xBA0.280
13
xSLG0.413
18
xwOBA0.281
26
-26 vs proj
BB%8.8%
54
-26 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
32
K%21.2%
61
+32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
73
Range Runs0.8 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.2% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
51 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.015 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Smith’s wOBA sits at 0.289, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.281 — a gap of 0.008, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 137 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielding | 2 | 2026-09-23 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.148 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.304 xwOBA | 12 HR | Projection |
| 2026-03-27 @ LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 BB, R |