Mithrandir Metrics

Version v1.0 Status production Snapshot 2026-09-26

Definition / formula

2024 Statcast pitch-event data, using public SEAGER-inspired swing/take xRV by count and normalized location.

SEAGER+ = 100 + z(Selection Tendency - Hittable Pitches Taken) * 10

Method note

The original implementation used a run-value average and produced ISO r 0.023.

Method note

A methodology audit restored rate-based ST - HPT and moved ISO r to 0.274.

Method note

Alternative-target diagnostics revealed the strongest signal is plate discipline: BB% r 0.648 and chase-rate r -0.692.

Validation / what it does not measure

Next-year BB% r 0.648 Next-year chase r -0.692 Next-year ISO r 0.274

Does not measure

It is not promoted as a primary power predictor; ISO correlation missed the original 0.300 gate by 0.026.

Does not measure

It does not yet include called-strike probability weighting or bat-tracking quality on correct swings.

Top 20 / current cached snapshot

Rank	Player	Metric	Sample	Status
1	Vargas, Miguel	114	461	qualified
2	Martin, Austin	113	237	qualified
3	McGonigle, Kevin	113	476	qualified
4	Tucker, Kyle	113	415	qualified
5	Jensen, Carter	113	384	qualified
6	Swanson, Dansby	113	306	qualified
7	Torkelson, Spencer	113	404	qualified
8	Kurtz, Nick	112	300	qualified
9	Torres, Gleyber	112	305	qualified
10	Seager, Corey	112	337	qualified
11	Stephenson, Tyler	112	315	qualified
12	Hernández, Heriberto	112	296	qualified
13	Hoskins, Rhys	111	211	qualified
14	DeLauter, Chase	111	372	qualified
15	Vivas, Jorbit	111	243	qualified
16	Smith, Will	110	247	qualified
17	Wood, James	110	399	qualified
18	Greene, Riley	110	383	qualified
19	Straw, Myles	110	214	qualified
20	Reynolds, Bryan	110	457	qualified