Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

TB at PHI

Nick Martinez vs Zack Wheeler · 2:30 PM ET

Final 3 - 7

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TB or PHI?

Mithrandir leans PHI over TB.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

53.6% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TB 4.1 · PHI 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.5 · Market 7.5 model minus market +1.0 runs

Run line TB 1.5 · PHI -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.6% · YRFI 50.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 32 Available in 32 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

32 matched rows

Strikeouts · PHI vs TB Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P63.8% F-- V53.1%

Model 63.8% Market 56.3% Model-market gap +7.5 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · PHI vs TB Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.3% F-- V--

Model 52.3% Market 47.2% Model-market gap +5.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs TB Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.6% F13.8% V10.9%

Model 15.1% Market 11.0% Model-market gap +4.2 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · TB vs PHI Nick Martinez Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.7% F-- V47.2%

Model 48.7% Market 44.6% Model-market gap +4.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs TB Alec Bohm Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P9.4% F13.3% V11.1%

Model 14.1% Market 10.7% Model-market gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · TB vs PHI Junior Caminero Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P87.4% F85.5% V87.1%

Model 85.7% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs TB Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P86.5% F86.2% V85.2%

Model 82.8% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Hits · TB vs PHI Taylor Walls Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 80.0% Market 48.8% Provisional model gap +31.2 pts

Open board

Hits · PHI vs TB Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 57.9% Market 36.4% Provisional model gap +21.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs TB J.t. Realmuto Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P30.7% F-- V--

Model 52.0% Market 31.7% Provisional model gap +20.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs TB Alec Bohm Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.9% F-- V--

Model 34.9% Market 18.0% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs PHI Yandy Díaz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.8% F-- V--

Model 35.8% Market 19.0% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs PHI Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.5% F-- V--

Model 39.5% Market 23.3% Provisional model gap +16.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs TB Brandon Marsh Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.3% F-- V--

Model 51.1% Market 35.1% Provisional model gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs PHI Junior Caminero Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.3% F-- V--

Model 42.4% Market 27.4% Provisional model gap +15.0 pts

Open board

Hits · TB vs PHI Junior Caminero Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 83.7% Market 68.8% Provisional model gap +14.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.