Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
CLE 2, KC 3. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CLE 2, KC 3
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
2 – 3final score
5total runs
43% → 100%KC win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Messick, Parker vs Lynch IV, Daniel · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CLE 56.7%KC 43.3%
4.21 – 3.39mean score
7.6mean total
62%NRFI
11.2%extra innings
6.55 / 1.75starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CLE (gold) vs KC (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CLE per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martínez, Angel | 4.76 | 1.202 | 0.208 | 2.151 | 0.222 | 1.071 | 0.575 |
| Bazzana, Travis | 4.646 | 1.082 | 0.153 | 1.811 | 0.45 | 1.018 | 0.475 |
| Adell, Jo | 4.538 | 1.083 | 0.164 | 1.818 | 0.255 | 1.146 | 0.545 |
| Lowe, Nathaniel | 4.429 | 1.045 | 0.166 | 1.797 | 0.368 | 1.064 | 0.551 |
| Fry, David | 4.323 | 0.847 | 0.157 | 1.504 | 0.461 | 1.15 | 0.469 |
| Genao, Angel | 4.211 | 0.926 | 0.089 | 1.383 | 0.37 | 0.763 | 0.367 |
| Hedges, Austin | 4.106 | 0.953 | 0.11 | 1.466 | 0.402 | 0.821 | 0.422 |
| Schneemann, Daniel | 3.998 | 0.837 | 0.109 | 1.319 | 0.328 | 1.159 | 0.402 |
| Halpin, Petey | 3.88 | 0.891 | 0.102 | 1.37 | 0.262 | 0.805 | 0.403 |
Projected batting lines
KC per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garcia, Maikel | 4.522 | 1.092 | 0.046 | 1.459 | 0.36 | 1.017 | 0.287 |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 4.417 | 1.122 | 0.104 | 1.728 | 0.385 | 1.065 | 0.419 |
| Caglianone, Jac | 4.316 | 1.098 | 0.128 | 1.779 | 0.255 | 1.433 | 0.544 |
| Perez, Salvador | 4.212 | 0.941 | 0.115 | 1.484 | 0.2 | 1.082 | 0.496 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 4.102 | 0.905 | 0.096 | 1.401 | 0.362 | 0.952 | 0.388 |
| Collins, Isaac | 3.995 | 0.729 | 0.04 | 0.988 | 0.405 | 1.229 | 0.243 |
| Tolbert, Tyler | 3.886 | 0.94 | 0.071 | 1.358 | 0.311 | 1.098 | 0.341 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 3.773 | 0.802 | 0.061 | 1.145 | 0.215 | 1.104 | 0.347 |
| Maile, Luke | 3.639 | 0.717 | 0.082 | 1.109 | 0.275 | 1.156 | 0.329 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Martínez, Angel vs Lynch IV, Daniel: OUT AIR
Bazzana, Travis vs Lynch IV, Daniel: HR +1 run (1-0)
Adell, Jo vs Lynch IV, Daniel: OUT GB
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Lynch IV, Daniel: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Garcia, Maikel vs Messick, Parker: OUT GB
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Messick, Parker: 2B
Caglianone, Jac vs Messick, Parker: K
Perez, Salvador vs Messick, Parker: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Fry, David vs Lynch IV, Daniel: OUT AIR
Genao, Angel vs Lynch IV, Daniel: OUT GB
Hedges, Austin vs Lynch IV, Daniel: 1B
Schneemann, Daniel vs Lynch IV, Daniel: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Messick, Parker: K
Collins, Isaac vs Messick, Parker: BB
Tolbert, Tyler vs Messick, Parker: 1B
Isbel, Kyle vs Messick, Parker: OUT AIR
Maile, Luke vs Messick, Parker: K
— Top 3 —
Halpin, Petey vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
Martínez, Angel vs Strahm, Matt: 2B
Bazzana, Travis vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
Adell, Jo vs Strahm, Matt: K
— Bottom 3 —
Garcia, Maikel vs Messick, Parker: 2B
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Messick, Parker: 1B +1 run (1-1)
Caglianone, Jac vs Messick, Parker: K
Perez, Salvador vs Messick, Parker: OUT AIR
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Messick, Parker: 2B +1 run (1-2)
Collins, Isaac vs Messick, Parker: BB
Tolbert, Tyler vs Messick, Parker: K
— Top 4 —
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Strahm, Matt: K
Fry, David vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
Genao, Angel vs Strahm, Matt: K
— Bottom 4 —
Isbel, Kyle vs Messick, Parker: K
Maile, Luke vs Messick, Parker: OUT AIR
Garcia, Maikel vs Messick, Parker: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Hedges, Austin vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
Schneemann, Daniel vs Strahm, Matt: K
Halpin, Petey vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Messick, Parker: 1B
Caglianone, Jac vs Messick, Parker: K
Perez, Salvador vs Messick, Parker: BB
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Sabrowski, Erik: K
Collins, Isaac vs Sabrowski, Erik: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Martínez, Angel vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
Bazzana, Travis vs Strahm, Matt: 1B
Adell, Jo vs Strahm, Matt: OUT GB
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Gose, Anthony: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Tolbert, Tyler vs Sabrowski, Erik: K
Isbel, Kyle vs Sabrowski, Erik: K
Maile, Luke vs Sabrowski, Erik: K
— Top 7 —
Fry, David vs Gose, Anthony: 2B
Genao, Angel vs Gose, Anthony: OUT AIR
Hedges, Austin vs Gose, Anthony: 2B +1 run (2-2)
Schneemann, Daniel vs Falter, Bailey: OUT GB
Halpin, Petey vs Falter, Bailey: 1B +1 run (3-2)
Martínez, Angel vs Falter, Bailey: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Garcia, Maikel vs Sabrowski, Erik: K
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Brogdon, Connor: BB
Caglianone, Jac vs Brogdon, Connor: OUT AIR
Perez, Salvador vs Brogdon, Connor: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Bazzana, Travis vs Falter, Bailey: OUT AIR
Adell, Jo vs Way, Beck: K
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Way, Beck: K
— Bottom 8 —
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Brogdon, Connor: HR +1 run (3-3)
Collins, Isaac vs Brogdon, Connor: 3B
Tolbert, Tyler vs Brogdon, Connor: 1B +1 run (3-4)
Isbel, Kyle vs Allard, Kolby: OUT GB
Maile, Luke vs Allard, Kolby: K
— Top 9 —
Fry, David vs Way, Beck: OUT AIR
Genao, Angel vs Way, Beck: K
Hedges, Austin vs Cruz, Steven: OUT GB