Mithrandir Metrics
Player KC Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / KC

Tyler Tolbert

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 185 lb · Age 28

Cards
13
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club KC Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025571914121.280.321.380.701
20261483237322.285.347.392.739
2 Seasons2055151443.283.340.389.729
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
21
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
27
Defense4 metrics
48
Speed4 metrics
75
Plate skills11 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.286
xwOBA current pace0.293
xwOBA rolling p500.289
Observed weight41%
xwOBA
0.244 0.265 0.289 0.313 0.334
wOBA
0.344 0.368 0.394 0.421 0.445
ISO
0.056 0.080 0.107 0.134 0.159
K%
15.7% 18.3% 21.1% 24.0% 26.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity79.7
2
Hard-hit%23.1%
6 -25 vs proj
xBA0.320
52
xSLG0.408
16
xwOBA0.293
39
BB%8.4%
51 +34 vs proj
Bat speed62.9
3
K%20.8%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · SS
9
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs0.7 · SS
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · SS
73
Bolts6.0 · SS
49
SB Success Rate90.5% · SS
83
Sprint Speed29.3 · SS
93
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
76
Mithrandir Stuff+67
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
59
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Tolbert, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.293 2026-09-13: 0.2942026-09-14: 0.2992026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2952026-09-20: 0.2952026-09-21: 0.2922026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2932026-09-24: 0.2932026-09-25: 0.2932026-09-26: 0.2932026-09-27: 0.293 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2026Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Tolbert, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 23%23% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolbert, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 100.0% EP100% · 47 mphprimary pitch EP 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolbert, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Eephus: 100% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 46.6 mphEP47 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 50.0% 5 88 limited sample
SL 50.0% 5 70 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.006
wOBA Δ+0.095

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.9σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.394
xwOBA (deserved)0.293

Tolbert’s wOBA sits at 0.394, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.293 — a gap of 0.101, -2.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 154 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding132026-09-032 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.313
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.299 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection