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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
STL 4, MIL 6. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
STL 4, MIL 6
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
4 – 6final score
10total runs
75% → 100%MIL win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pallante, Andre vs Misiorowski, Jacob · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
STL 25.5%MIL 74.5%
2.27 – 4.26mean score
6.53mean total
62%NRFI
11.0%extra innings
4.97 / 8.56starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
STL (gold) vs MIL (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
STL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker, Jordan | 4.418 | 0.86 | 0.116 | 1.431 | 0.296 | 1.748 | 0.305 |
| Herrera, Iván | 4.327 | 0.754 | 0.071 | 1.115 | 0.373 | 1.411 | 0.252 |
| Bernal, Leo | 4.23 | 0.822 | 0.097 | 1.296 | 0.29 | 1.602 | 0.32 |
| Gorman, Nolan | 4.135 | 0.586 | 0.076 | 0.915 | 0.384 | 1.788 | 0.237 |
| Saggese, Thomas | 4.027 | 0.729 | 0.071 | 1.099 | 0.27 | 1.552 | 0.261 |
| Church, Nathan | 3.912 | 0.772 | 0.057 | 1.097 | 0.216 | 1.088 | 0.249 |
| Fermín, José | 3.784 | 0.744 | 0.045 | 1.008 | 0.272 | 0.921 | 0.238 |
| Prieto, César | 3.657 | 0.567 | 0.048 | 0.805 | 0.239 | 1.118 | 0.212 |
| Pagés, Pedro | 3.531 | 0.574 | 0.047 | 0.804 | 0.201 | 1.324 | 0.196 |
Projected batting lines
MIL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell, Garrett | 4.622 | 1.192 | 0.063 | 1.659 | 0.442 | 1.415 | 0.428 |
| Bauers, Jake | 4.503 | 1.091 | 0.133 | 1.812 | 0.615 | 1.171 | 0.587 |
| Chourio, Jackson | 4.389 | 1.211 | 0.113 | 1.883 | 0.341 | 1.032 | 0.628 |
| Turang, Brice | 4.287 | 1.068 | 0.085 | 1.604 | 0.499 | 1.073 | 0.57 |
| Sánchez, Gary | 4.193 | 0.825 | 0.092 | 1.301 | 0.543 | 0.913 | 0.485 |
| Yelich, Christian | 4.087 | 0.909 | 0.07 | 1.32 | 0.372 | 1.063 | 0.427 |
| Pratt, Cooper | 3.974 | 1.015 | 0.047 | 1.339 | 0.374 | 0.81 | 0.392 |
| Frelick, Sal | 3.865 | 0.904 | 0.037 | 1.169 | 0.306 | 0.526 | 0.359 |
| Hamilton, David | 3.743 | 0.947 | 0.04 | 1.255 | 0.292 | 0.853 | 0.384 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Walker, Jordan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: BB
Herrera, Iván vs Misiorowski, Jacob: 1B +1 run (1-0)
Bernal, Leo vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Gorman, Nolan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Saggese, Thomas vs Misiorowski, Jacob: 1B
Church, Nathan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Mitchell, Garrett vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Bauers, Jake vs Pallante, Andre: K
Chourio, Jackson vs Pallante, Andre: K
— Top 2 —
Fermín, José vs Misiorowski, Jacob: 2B
Prieto, César vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Pagés, Pedro vs Misiorowski, Jacob: BB
Walker, Jordan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Herrera, Iván vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
— Bottom 2 —
Turang, Brice vs Pallante, Andre: OUT AIR
Sánchez, Gary vs Pallante, Andre: OUT AIR
Yelich, Christian vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Bernal, Leo vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Gorman, Nolan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT AIR
Saggese, Thomas vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
— Bottom 3 —
Pratt, Cooper vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Frelick, Sal vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Hamilton, David vs Pallante, Andre: K
— Top 4 —
Church, Nathan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT GB
Fermín, José vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Prieto, César vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Mitchell, Garrett vs Pallante, Andre: BB
Bauers, Jake vs Pallante, Andre: 1B +1 run (1-1)
Chourio, Jackson vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Turang, Brice vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Pagés, Pedro vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Walker, Jordan vs Misiorowski, Jacob: BB
Herrera, Iván vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT GB
Bernal, Leo vs Ashby, Aaron: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Sánchez, Gary vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Yelich, Christian vs Pallante, Andre: 1B
Pratt, Cooper vs Pallante, Andre: K
Frelick, Sal vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Gorman, Nolan vs Ashby, Aaron: OUT GB
Saggese, Thomas vs Ashby, Aaron: K
Church, Nathan vs Ashby, Aaron: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Hamilton, David vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Mitchell, Garrett vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Bauers, Jake vs Pallante, Andre: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Fermín, José vs Stallings, Garrett: K
Prieto, César vs Stallings, Garrett: 1B
Pagés, Pedro vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Chourio, Jackson vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Turang, Brice vs Pallante, Andre: 2B
Sánchez, Gary vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Yelich, Christian vs Pallante, Andre: K
— Top 8 —
Walker, Jordan vs Stallings, Garrett: 2B
Herrera, Iván vs Wilson, Bryse: K
Bernal, Leo vs Wilson, Bryse: K
Gorman, Nolan vs Wilson, Bryse: K
— Bottom 8 —
Pratt, Cooper vs Pallante, Andre: OUT GB
Frelick, Sal vs Fernandez, Ryan: 1B
Hamilton, David vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT AIR
Mitchell, Garrett vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Saggese, Thomas vs Wilson, Bryse: OUT GB
Church, Nathan vs Megill, Trevor: 1B
Fermín, José vs Megill, Trevor: OUT GB
Prieto, César vs Megill, Trevor: K
— Bottom 9 —
Bauers, Jake vs Fernandez, Ryan: K
Chourio, Jackson vs Fernandez, Ryan: K
Turang, Brice vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT AIR
— Top 10 —
Pagés, Pedro vs Megill, Trevor: K
Walker, Jordan vs Megill, Trevor: OUT AIR
Herrera, Iván vs Uribe, Abner: K
— Bottom 10 —
Sánchez, Gary vs Gastelum, Luis: K
Yelich, Christian vs Gastelum, Luis: OUT GB
Pratt, Cooper vs Gastelum, Luis: OUT GB
— Top 11 —
Bernal, Leo vs Uribe, Abner: OUT AIR
Gorman, Nolan vs Uribe, Abner: OUT AIR
Saggese, Thomas vs Uribe, Abner: OUT GB
— Bottom 11 —
Frelick, Sal vs Gastelum, Luis: K
Hamilton, David vs Romero, JoJo: OUT AIR
Mitchell, Garrett vs Romero, JoJo: K
— Top 12 —
Church, Nathan vs Uribe, Abner: 1B +1 run (2-1)
Fermín, José vs Uribe, Abner: OUT AIR
Prieto, César vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: K
Pagés, Pedro vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: OUT GB
— Bottom 12 —
Bauers, Jake vs Romero, JoJo: OUT GB
Chourio, Jackson vs Romero, JoJo: 1B +1 run (2-2)
Turang, Brice vs Romero, JoJo: 1B
Sánchez, Gary vs Romero, JoJo: 1B
Yelich, Christian vs O'Brien, Riley: 1B +2 runs (2-4)