Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2025-08-17 |
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals
Nathan Church
CF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 180 lb · Age 26
Club St. Louis Cardinals
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 1 | .179 | .254 | .250 | .504 |
| 2026 | 470 | 53 | 107 | 10 | 10 | .247 | .290 | .364 | .654 |
| 2 Seasons | 535 | 62 | 117 | 11 | 11 | .239 | .286 | .351 | .637 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
24
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 69% |
xwOBA
0.254
0.266
0.280
0.293
0.306
wOBA
0.285
0.298
0.312
0.326
0.339
ISO
0.084
0.099
0.114
0.130
0.144
K%
14.2%
15.9%
17.8%
19.7%
21.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
35
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%29.9%
16
-16 vs proj
xBA0.298
27
xSLG0.436
26
xwOBA0.283
29
BB%5.6%
19
-22 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
19
K%16.8%
84
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · CF
39
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
95
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs1.5 · CF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
64
SB Success Rate69.2% · CF
24
Sprint Speed28.5 · CF
80
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.5% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions61.0% · rebadged research
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
63
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
240 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.024 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Church’s wOBA sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.283 — a gap of 0.028, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 483 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giménez, Andrés TOR · L | 0.79 | Isolated powerFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne BOS · R | 0.77 | Barrel rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Gonzales, Nick PIT · R | 0.67 | Oppo rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| McCarthy, Jake COL · L | 0.66 | Barrel rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-08-03 | On-base pressure held the card together |
| Fielding | 33 | 2026-09-26 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.626 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K, SB |
| 2026-04-15 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2B, RBI, 2 R |
| 2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 | RBI |
| 2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 |