Mithrandir Metrics
STL at MIL 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

STL at MIL

Pallante, Andre vs Misiorowski, Jacob · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read
The question

Does Mithrandir lean STL or MIL?

Mithrandir leans MIL over STL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

74.5% Mirror Monte Carlo
Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.
Game market read
Projected runs STL 3.8 · MIL 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed
Total Model 8.3 · Market 7.5 model minus market +0.8 runs
Run line STL 1.5 · MIL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability
First inning NRFI 50.4% · YRFI 49.6% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation
Palantir 24 Available in 24 player rows
Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows
Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

24 matched rows
Strikeouts · STL vs MIL Andre Pallante Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster
P60.9% F-- V52.8%
Model 60.9% Market 40.7% Model-market gap +20.2 pts
Open board
Strikeouts · MIL vs STL Jacob Misiorowski Under 6.5 · Healthy / active roster
P57.8% F-- V52.5%
Model 57.8% Market 50.4% Model-market gap +7.4 pts
Open board
Home runs · STL vs MIL Alec Burleson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P13.7% F15.3% V11.2%
Model 16.6% Market 13.3% Model-market gap +3.3 pts
Open board
Hits · STL vs MIL Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P98.0% F-- V--
Model 79.1% Market 29.4% Provisional model gap +49.7 pts
Open board
Hits · MIL vs STL Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P98.0% F-- V--
Model 66.9% Market 24.4% Provisional model gap +42.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · MIL vs STL Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster
P10.1% F-- V--
Model 52.2% Market 31.2% Provisional model gap +21.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · MIL vs STL Christian Yelich Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P34.9% F-- V--
Model 34.5% Market 17.7% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts
Open board
Total bases · MIL vs STL Brice Turang Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P40.1% F-- V--
Model 35.4% Market 18.7% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts
Open board
Total bases · MIL vs STL William Contreras Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P37.3% F-- V--
Model 36.5% Market 19.8% Provisional model gap +16.7 pts
Open board
Total bases · STL vs MIL Alec Burleson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P43.4% F-- V--
Model 39.1% Market 22.7% Provisional model gap +16.3 pts
Open board
Hits · MIL vs STL Jake Bauers Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P98.0% F-- V--
Model 48.8% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +15.5 pts
Open board
Hits · STL vs MIL Jordan Walker Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P98.0% F-- V--
Model 50.1% Market 35.1% Provisional model gap +15.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · STL vs MIL Pedro Pagés Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster
P50.9% F-- V--
Model 50.9% Market 36.4% Provisional model gap +14.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · MIL vs STL Sal Frelick Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P57.0% F-- V--
Model 43.8% Market 29.9% Provisional model gap +14.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · STL vs MIL Victor Scott II Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster
P50.5% F-- V--
Model 50.5% Market 38.5% Provisional model gap +12.1 pts
Open board
Total bases · STL vs MIL Masyn Winn Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster
P50.5% F-- V--
Model 50.5% Market 38.5% Provisional model gap +12.0 pts
Open board
Kalshi exchange context
No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.