Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

TEX at MIN

Gore, MacKenzie vs Kremer, Dean · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TEX or MIN?

Mithrandir leans MIN over TEX.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

52.4% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TEX 4.9 · MIN 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.5 · Market 8.5 model minus market +1.0 runs

Run line TEX -1.5 · MIN 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 46.4% · YRFI 53.6% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 33 Available in 33 player rows

Fangorn 5 Available in 5 player rows

Valinor 5 Available in 5 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

33 matched rows

Strikeouts · TEX vs MIN MacKenzie Gore Over 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P65.6% F-- V53.1%

Model 65.6% Market 44.1% Model-market gap +21.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs MIN Evan Carter Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.0% F15.6% V11.0%

Model 15.6% Market 11.0% Model-market gap +4.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs MIN Wyatt Langford Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.3% F15.3% V14.8%

Model 18.7% Market 14.4% Model-market gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs MIN Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.7% F15.6% V15.4%

Model 19.9% Market 15.6% Model-market gap +4.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · MIN vs TEX Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.3% F13.8% V11.9%

Model 16.4% Market 12.4% Model-market gap +4.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · MIN vs TEX Josh Bell Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.9% F14.4% V14.1%

Model 18.1% Market 14.7% Model-market gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · MIN vs TEX Dean Kremer Under 15.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.8% F-- V--

Model 51.8% Market 50.6% Model-market gap +1.2 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · MIN vs TEX Dean Kremer Over 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.4% F-- V53.1%

Model 51.4% Market 50.4% Model-market gap +1.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Evan Carter Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P28.2% F-- V--

Model 52.9% Market 29.4% Provisional model gap +23.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Ryan Jeffers Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P30.9% F-- V--

Model 52.0% Market 31.7% Provisional model gap +20.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Royce Lewis Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.7% F-- V--

Model 51.2% Market 34.5% Provisional model gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.5% F-- V--

Model 38.2% Market 21.5% Provisional model gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.0% F-- V--

Model 40.3% Market 24.4% Provisional model gap +15.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Jake Burger Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.6% F-- V--

Model 41.3% Market 25.6% Provisional model gap +15.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Josh Bell Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.8% F-- V--

Model 41.2% Market 25.6% Provisional model gap +15.5 pts

Open board

Hits · TEX vs MIN Danny Jansen Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 54.7% Market 42.6% Provisional model gap +12.1 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.