Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta

HOU 9, ATH 0. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

HOU 9, ATH 0

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate

Final
9 – 0final score
9total runs
38% → 0%ATH win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Houston Astros @ Athletics

Lambert, Peter vs Johnson, Seth · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-27
HOU 61.6%ATH 38.4%
5.33 – 4.03mean score
9.36mean total
48%NRFI
9.9%extra innings
5.97 / 1.95starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

HOU (gold) vs ATH (cyan)

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Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

HOU per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Peña, Jeremy 4.9371.3350.208 2.3180.3291.3480.598
Alvarez, Yordan 4.8271.3320.286 2.5810.731.0450.771
Paredes, Isaac 4.7261.2060.184 2.0310.5270.8420.663
Altuve, Jose 4.6171.1330.141 1.7860.3741.1070.594
Diaz, Yainer 4.4981.2450.165 2.0190.2570.9160.657
Walker, Christian 4.3880.9890.198 1.8110.3681.20.612
Spence, Lucas 4.2770.9530.187 1.7450.3791.3490.538
Smith, Cam 4.1680.8760.15 1.5320.3441.2140.469
Trammell, Taylor 4.0530.8280.135 1.3970.4211.3450.427
Projected batting lines

ATH per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Bolte, Henry 4.6021.1730.105 1.7480.3681.4710.363
Butler, Lawrence 4.490.9630.129 1.5580.4931.3780.432
Langeliers, Shea 4.3811.0460.18 1.8510.3631.1930.564
Gelof, Zack 4.2761.0140.179 1.8240.3381.220.583
McNeil, Jeff 4.1761.0260.079 1.4340.2850.6760.411
Walton, Donovan 4.0740.9130.115 1.4720.3810.9170.432
Kuroda-Grauer, Joshua 3.9671.0740.091 1.5930.2580.9390.433
Cortes, Carlos 3.860.8690.097 1.3320.30.8420.403
Serven, Brian 3.7360.6960.138 1.2510.2361.0630.412
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Peña, Jeremy vs Johnson, Seth: 2B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Johnson, Seth: OUT AIR
Paredes, Isaac vs Johnson, Seth: OUT GB
Altuve, Jose vs Johnson, Seth: 1B +1 run (1-0)
Diaz, Yainer vs Johnson, Seth: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Bolte, Henry vs Lambert, Peter: OUT AIR
Butler, Lawrence vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
Langeliers, Shea vs Lambert, Peter: BB
Gelof, Zack vs Lambert, Peter: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Walker, Christian vs Johnson, Seth: 1B
Spence, Lucas vs Johnson, Seth: OUT AIR
Smith, Cam vs Johnson, Seth: K
Trammell, Taylor vs Harris, Hogan: K
— Bottom 2 —
McNeil, Jeff vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Lambert, Peter: OUT AIR
Kuroda-Grauer, Joshua vs Lambert, Peter: K
— Top 3 —
Peña, Jeremy vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Harris, Hogan: 2B
Paredes, Isaac vs Harris, Hogan: K
Altuve, Jose vs Alvarado, Elvis: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Cortes, Carlos vs Lambert, Peter: 2B
Serven, Brian vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
Bolte, Henry vs Lambert, Peter: K
Butler, Lawrence vs Lambert, Peter: BB
Langeliers, Shea vs Lambert, Peter: K
— Top 4 —
Diaz, Yainer vs Alvarado, Elvis: K
Walker, Christian vs Alvarado, Elvis: K
Spence, Lucas vs Alvarado, Elvis: K
— Bottom 4 —
Gelof, Zack vs Lambert, Peter: K
McNeil, Jeff vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Lambert, Peter: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Smith, Cam vs Medina, Luis: K
Trammell, Taylor vs Medina, Luis: K
Peña, Jeremy vs Medina, Luis: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Medina, Luis: BB
Paredes, Isaac vs Sterner, Justin: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Kuroda-Grauer, Joshua vs Lambert, Peter: K
Cortes, Carlos vs Lambert, Peter: BB
Serven, Brian vs Lambert, Peter: OUT AIR
Bolte, Henry vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Altuve, Jose vs Sterner, Justin: BB
Diaz, Yainer vs Sterner, Justin: OUT GB
Walker, Christian vs Sterner, Justin: 1B
Spence, Lucas vs Sterner, Justin: OUT AIR
Smith, Cam vs Blewett, Scott: 1B
Trammell, Taylor vs Blewett, Scott: K
— Bottom 6 —
Butler, Lawrence vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
Langeliers, Shea vs Lambert, Peter: 2B
Gelof, Zack vs Lambert, Peter: 1B +1 run (1-1)
McNeil, Jeff vs Lambert, Peter: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Peña, Jeremy vs Blewett, Scott: K
Alvarez, Yordan vs Blewett, Scott: K
Paredes, Isaac vs Estes, Joey: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Walton, Donovan vs Okert, Steven: 1B
Kuroda-Grauer, Joshua vs Okert, Steven: 1B
Cortes, Carlos vs Okert, Steven: OUT AIR
Serven, Brian vs Okert, Steven: K
Bolte, Henry vs Okert, Steven: 1B
Butler, Lawrence vs Okert, Steven: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Altuve, Jose vs Estes, Joey: BB
Diaz, Yainer vs Estes, Joey: 1B
Walker, Christian vs Estes, Joey: BB
Spence, Lucas vs Estes, Joey: BB +1 run (2-1)
Smith, Cam vs Estes, Joey: OUT AIR
Trammell, Taylor vs Rom, Drew: 1B +2 runs (4-1)
Peña, Jeremy vs Rom, Drew: K
Alvarez, Yordan vs Rom, Drew: HR +3 runs (7-1)
Paredes, Isaac vs Leiter Jr., Mark: 3B
Altuve, Jose vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Langeliers, Shea vs Gordon, Colton: K
Gelof, Zack vs Gordon, Colton: HR +1 run (7-2)
McNeil, Jeff vs Gordon, Colton: OUT AIR
Walton, Donovan vs Gordon, Colton: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Diaz, Yainer vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
Walker, Christian vs Leiter Jr., Mark: K
Spence, Lucas vs Leiter Jr., Mark: K
— Bottom 9 —
Kuroda-Grauer, Joshua vs Gordon, Colton: 1B
Cortes, Carlos vs Gordon, Colton: 1B
Serven, Brian vs Abreu, Bryan: K
Bolte, Henry vs Abreu, Bryan: OUT GB