Mithrandir Metrics
Player Houston Astros Refreshed Sep 30 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Houston Astros

Lucas Spence

CF · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 195 lb · Age 23

Cards
6
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Houston Astros Position CF Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20266391240.218.317.509.826
1 Seasons6391240.218.317.509.826
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-30
73
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
64
Defense1 metrics
80
Speed1 metrics
68
Plate skills9 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-30
xwOBA preseason0.266
xwOBA current pace0.295
xwOBA rolling p500.273
Observed weight24%
xwOBA
0.195 0.232 0.273 0.314 0.351
wOBA
0.284 0.319 0.358 0.397 0.433
ISO
0.083 0.116 0.153 0.189 0.222
K%
14.5% 19.8% 25.6% 31.5% 36.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-30
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
67 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
90
Hard-hit%48.6%
90 +52 vs proj
xBA0.327
60
xSLG0.630
87
xwOBA0.295
42
BB%10.3%
72 +20 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
K%35.3%
4 -32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Arm Runs-0.6 · CF
Small sample
Range Runs0.6 · CF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · CF
68
Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-30
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.8% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions74.0% · rebadged research
98
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline115
97
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

5 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Spence, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.295 2026-09-26: 0.2862026-09-27: 0.2902026-09-28: 0.3052026-09-29: 0.3052026-09-30: 0.295 2026-09-26 2026-09-30 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

13 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Spence, Lucas · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 0% of plotted batted ballsPull 0%Center field third: 85% of plotted batted ballsCenter 85%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 315 CF 409 RF 326 2026-07-27 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -5.02026-07-27 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 16.02026-07-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -38.02026-07-31 · single · EP · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -14.02026-09-23 · field out · FF · popup · EV 50.8 / LA 55.02026-09-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 56.4 / LA 9.02026-09-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 32.02026-09-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 35.02026-09-26 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 10.02026-09-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -8.02026-09-27 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 24.02026-09-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 60.6 / LA -41.02026-09-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -1.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Spence, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 36%36%Zone contact: 73%73%Contact: 64%64%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age23
Height6' 0"
Weight195 lb
Debut2026-07-17
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.000
wOBA Δ+0.063
Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-09-24Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding52026-09-295 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.014
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.295 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-03-24 vs SUG0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 1 E0-0 | BB, CS
2026-03-23 vs SUG1 HR | 3 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E1-2 | HR, 3 RBI, R