Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
CHC 6, BOS 2. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CHC 6, BOS 2
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
6 – 2final score
8total runs
47% → 0%BOS win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
Imanaga, Shota vs Pitcher 656557 · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CHC 52.6%BOS 47.4%
4.52 – 4.08mean score
8.6mean total
52%NRFI
10.3%extra innings
6.04 / 5.84starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CHC (gold) vs BOS (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CHC per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crow-Armstrong, Pete | 4.859 | 1.206 | 0.243 | 2.321 | 0.49 | 1.482 | 0.621 |
| Bregman, Alex | 4.752 | 1.167 | 0.157 | 1.942 | 0.455 | 0.935 | 0.561 |
| Busch, Michael | 4.641 | 1.023 | 0.121 | 1.599 | 0.523 | 1.312 | 0.491 |
| Happ, Ian | 4.528 | 0.893 | 0.142 | 1.552 | 0.527 | 1.544 | 0.504 |
| Conforto, Michael | 4.416 | 0.991 | 0.158 | 1.729 | 0.425 | 1.294 | 0.585 |
| Hoerner, Nico | 4.312 | 1.152 | 0.052 | 1.518 | 0.284 | 0.571 | 0.419 |
| Ramírez, Pedro | 4.206 | 1.021 | 0.086 | 1.506 | 0.319 | 0.995 | 0.452 |
| Swanson, Dansby | 4.093 | 0.836 | 0.122 | 1.402 | 0.362 | 1.16 | 0.458 |
| Amaya, Miguel | 3.975 | 0.923 | 0.096 | 1.427 | 0.304 | 1.197 | 0.43 |
Projected batting lines
BOS per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony, Roman | 4.554 | 1.022 | 0.127 | 1.613 | 0.403 | 1.373 | 0.375 |
| Rutschman, Adley | 4.444 | 1.043 | 0.16 | 1.752 | 0.338 | 0.981 | 0.462 |
| Contreras, Willson | 4.331 | 1.108 | 0.241 | 2.118 | 0.375 | 1.276 | 0.628 |
| Abreu, Wilyer | 4.239 | 0.967 | 0.183 | 1.748 | 0.333 | 1.089 | 0.55 |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne | 4.136 | 1.094 | 0.138 | 1.763 | 0.177 | 1.032 | 0.513 |
| Sogard, Nick | 4.029 | 0.954 | 0.11 | 1.481 | 0.364 | 1.008 | 0.415 |
| Durbin, Caleb | 3.927 | 0.939 | 0.11 | 1.45 | 0.282 | 0.754 | 0.415 |
| Story, Trevor | 3.804 | 0.883 | 0.095 | 1.335 | 0.184 | 1.293 | 0.381 |
| Monasterio, Andruw | 3.677 | 0.798 | 0.088 | 1.222 | 0.246 | 0.88 | 0.337 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Pitcher 656557: 1B
Bregman, Alex vs Pitcher 656557: K
Busch, Michael vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
Happ, Ian vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Anthony, Roman vs Imanaga, Shota: 2B
Rutschman, Adley vs Imanaga, Shota: BB
Contreras, Willson vs Imanaga, Shota: HR +3 runs (0-3)
Abreu, Wilyer vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT AIR
Rafaela, Ceddanne vs Imanaga, Shota: K
Sogard, Nick vs Imanaga, Shota: K
— Top 2 —
Conforto, Michael vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
Hoerner, Nico vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
Ramírez, Pedro vs Pitcher 656557: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Durbin, Caleb vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT AIR
Story, Trevor vs Imanaga, Shota: 1B
Monasterio, Andruw vs Imanaga, Shota: BB
Anthony, Roman vs Imanaga, Shota: K
Rutschman, Adley vs Imanaga, Shota: K
— Top 3 —
Swanson, Dansby vs Pitcher 656557: OUT GB
Amaya, Miguel vs Pitcher 656557: 2B
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Pitcher 656557: K
Bregman, Alex vs Pitcher 656557: 1B +1 run (1-3)
Busch, Michael vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Contreras, Willson vs Imanaga, Shota: 1B
Abreu, Wilyer vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT GB
Rafaela, Ceddanne vs Imanaga, Shota: 1B
Sogard, Nick vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT AIR
Durbin, Caleb vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Happ, Ian vs Pitcher 656557: K
Conforto, Michael vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
Hoerner, Nico vs Pitcher 656557: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Story, Trevor vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT GB
Monasterio, Andruw vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT GB
Anthony, Roman vs Imanaga, Shota: K
— Top 5 —
Ramírez, Pedro vs Pitcher 656557: K
Swanson, Dansby vs Pitcher 656557: OUT GB
Amaya, Miguel vs Pitcher 656557: K
— Bottom 5 —
Rutschman, Adley vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT GB
Contreras, Willson vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT GB
Abreu, Wilyer vs Imanaga, Shota: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Pitcher 656557: K
Bregman, Alex vs Pitcher 656557: BB
Busch, Michael vs Pitcher 656557: OUT AIR
Happ, Ian vs Pitcher 656557: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Rafaela, Ceddanne vs Ferguson, Tyler: 1B
Sogard, Nick vs Ferguson, Tyler: 2B
Durbin, Caleb vs Ferguson, Tyler: HR +3 runs (1-6)
Story, Trevor vs Webb, Jacob: HR +1 run (1-7)
Monasterio, Andruw vs Webb, Jacob: K
Anthony, Roman vs Webb, Jacob: K
Rutschman, Adley vs Webb, Jacob: BB
Contreras, Willson vs Palencia, Daniel: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Conforto, Michael vs Pitcher 656557: 1B
Hoerner, Nico vs Pitcher 656557: K
Ramírez, Pedro vs Weissert, Greg: 1B
Swanson, Dansby vs Weissert, Greg: OUT GB
Amaya, Miguel vs Weissert, Greg: K
— Bottom 7 —
Abreu, Wilyer vs Palencia, Daniel: BB
Rafaela, Ceddanne vs Palencia, Daniel: OUT AIR
Sogard, Nick vs Palencia, Daniel: 1B
Durbin, Caleb vs Rolison, Ryan: OUT AIR
Story, Trevor vs Rolison, Ryan: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Weissert, Greg: K
Bregman, Alex vs Weissert, Greg: 1B
Busch, Michael vs Anderson, Jack: K
Happ, Ian vs Anderson, Jack: K
— Bottom 8 —
Monasterio, Andruw vs Rolison, Ryan: OUT AIR
Anthony, Roman vs Rolison, Ryan: OUT GB
Rutschman, Adley vs Rolison, Ryan: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Conforto, Michael vs Anderson, Jack: OUT AIR
Hoerner, Nico vs Anderson, Jack: OUT GB
Ramírez, Pedro vs Burgos, Raymond: 1B
Swanson, Dansby vs Burgos, Raymond: OUT GB