Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta

LAD 5, SF 1. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

LAD 5, SF 1

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate

Final
5 – 1final score
6total runs
35% → 0%SF win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

Dreyer, Jack vs Seymour, Carson · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-27
LAD 65.2%SF 34.8%
4.54 – 2.85mean score
7.39mean total
57%NRFI
10.4%extra innings
1.74 / 1.62starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

LAD (gold) vs SF (cyan)

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Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

LAD per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Ohtani, Shohei 4.9461.1540.138 1.9210.6481.4290.509
Betts, Mookie 4.8431.1330.123 1.80.5140.7290.541
Freeman, Freddie 4.7341.2050.076 1.6940.4931.0040.499
Tucker, Kyle 4.6250.9930.086 1.4780.5850.9460.495
Hernández, Teoscar 4.5171.1130.112 1.730.4131.360.587
Muncy, Max 4.40.9730.142 1.6740.51.2240.592
Pages, Andy 4.2861.0660.102 1.6580.3790.9690.543
Feduccia, Hunter 4.1780.8560.046 1.1490.4471.2410.357
Edman, Tommy 4.0650.9430.061 1.3370.321.0280.414
Projected batting lines

SF per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Cox, Jonah 4.4860.9460.072 1.3770.3491.7550.326
Davidson, Bo 4.3810.9050.091 1.3840.3731.4580.373
Bericoto, Victor 4.2790.9270.108 1.4720.2551.3390.424
Mayer, Marcelo 4.1750.8130.048 1.0950.3681.1090.294
Whitcomb, Shay 4.0780.7920.076 1.190.2731.3230.321
Cavanaugh, Drew 3.9690.7650.039 1.0010.4481.3120.24
Bandura, Scott 3.8530.7790.044 1.0620.431.4010.264
Koss, Christian 3.7360.7140.05 1.00.2741.1790.289
Gilbert, Drew 3.6010.7240.06 1.0680.4040.8650.32
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Ohtani, Shohei vs Seymour, Carson: BB
Betts, Mookie vs Seymour, Carson: OUT AIR
Freeman, Freddie vs Seymour, Carson: BB
Tucker, Kyle vs Seymour, Carson: 2B +2 runs (2-0)
Hernández, Teoscar vs Seymour, Carson: OUT GB
Muncy, Max vs Seymour, Carson: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Cox, Jonah vs Dreyer, Jack: BB
Davidson, Bo vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT GB
Bericoto, Victor vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT GB
Mayer, Marcelo vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Pages, Andy vs Seymour, Carson: 1B
Feduccia, Hunter vs Miller, Erik: OUT AIR
Edman, Tommy vs Miller, Erik: OUT GB
Ohtani, Shohei vs Miller, Erik: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Whitcomb, Shay vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT AIR
Cavanaugh, Drew vs Vesia, Alex: OUT AIR
Bandura, Scott vs Vesia, Alex: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Betts, Mookie vs Miller, Erik: OUT AIR
Freeman, Freddie vs Miller, Erik: K
Tucker, Kyle vs Sanmartin, Reiver: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Koss, Christian vs Vesia, Alex: OUT AIR
Gilbert, Drew vs Vesia, Alex: K
Cox, Jonah vs Vesia, Alex: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Hernández, Teoscar vs Sanmartin, Reiver: OUT GB
Muncy, Max vs Sanmartin, Reiver: 2B
Pages, Andy vs Sanmartin, Reiver: K
Feduccia, Hunter vs Hentges, Sam: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Davidson, Bo vs Vesia, Alex: OUT GB
Bericoto, Victor vs Vesia, Alex: K
Mayer, Marcelo vs Vesia, Alex: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Edman, Tommy vs Hentges, Sam: OUT GB
Ohtani, Shohei vs Hentges, Sam: K
Betts, Mookie vs Hentges, Sam: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Whitcomb, Shay vs Vesia, Alex: OUT GB
Cavanaugh, Drew vs Vesia, Alex: K
Bandura, Scott vs Vesia, Alex: K
— Top 6 —
Freeman, Freddie vs Hentges, Sam: OUT AIR
Tucker, Kyle vs Hentges, Sam: 1B
Hernández, Teoscar vs Kilian, Caleb: OUT AIR
Muncy, Max vs Kilian, Caleb: K
— Bottom 6 —
Koss, Christian vs Vesia, Alex: OUT GB
Gilbert, Drew vs Ryan, River: OUT GB
Cox, Jonah vs Ryan, River: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Pages, Andy vs Kilian, Caleb: K
Feduccia, Hunter vs Kilian, Caleb: OUT GB
Edman, Tommy vs Smith, Dylan: 1B
Ohtani, Shohei vs Smith, Dylan: BB
Betts, Mookie vs Smith, Dylan: 2B +2 runs (4-0)
Freeman, Freddie vs Smith, Dylan: BB
Tucker, Kyle vs Bivens, Spencer: 1B
Hernández, Teoscar vs Bivens, Spencer: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Davidson, Bo vs Ryan, River: OUT AIR
Bericoto, Victor vs Ryan, River: OUT AIR
Mayer, Marcelo vs Ryan, River: K
— Top 8 —
Muncy, Max vs Bivens, Spencer: HR +1 run (5-0)
Pages, Andy vs Bivens, Spencer: OUT GB
Feduccia, Hunter vs Bivens, Spencer: BB
Edman, Tommy vs Harris, Trent: OUT AIR
Ohtani, Shohei vs Harris, Trent: K
— Bottom 8 —
Whitcomb, Shay vs Ryan, River: 1B
Cavanaugh, Drew vs Stewart, Brock: K
Bandura, Scott vs Stewart, Brock: 1B
Koss, Christian vs Stewart, Brock: 1B +1 run (5-1)
Gilbert, Drew vs Stewart, Brock: OUT AIR
Cox, Jonah vs Hurt, Kyle: BB
Davidson, Bo vs Hurt, Kyle: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Betts, Mookie vs Harris, Trent: OUT GB
Freeman, Freddie vs Harris, Trent: K
Tucker, Kyle vs Winn, Keaton: K
— Bottom 9 —
Bericoto, Victor vs Hurt, Kyle: OUT GB
Mayer, Marcelo vs Hurt, Kyle: OUT GB
Whitcomb, Shay vs Phillips, Evan: 2B
Cavanaugh, Drew vs Phillips, Evan: 1B +1 run (5-2)
Bandura, Scott vs Phillips, Evan: K