Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2025	109	12	19	3	1	.190	.248	.350	.598
2026	393	53	81	11	3	.238	.330	.394	.724
2 Seasons	502	65	100	14	4	.227	.312	.384	.696

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29

51

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

53

Defense4 metrics

58

Speed2 metrics

48

Plate skills10 metrics

63

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29

xwOBA preseason	0.309
xwOBA current pace	0.334
xwOBA rolling p50	0.326
Observed weight	65%

xwOBA

0.297 0.311 0.326 0.340 0.354

wOBA

0.322 0.337 0.353 0.369 0.383

ISO

0.136 0.151 0.166 0.182 0.196

K%

14.3% 15.8% 17.4% 19.0% 20.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.9%

35

Exit velocity85.9

28

Hard-hit%37.2%

45

xBA0.330

64

xSLG0.507

53

xwOBA0.334

82 +27 vs proj

BB%10.0%

68 +20 vs proj

Bat speed67.2

24

K%17.8%

80

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.4 · CF

64

Arm Strength95.6 · CF

65

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF

25

Range Runs3.7 · CF

79

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.3 · CF

46

Sprint Speed27.5 · CF

50

SB Success Rate50.0% · CF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-29

Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2% · rebadged research

86

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research

54

Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research

82

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108

85

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline

11

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample

94

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample

20

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample

89

Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated

27

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated

82

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Drew Gilbert's production (72) outpaces the tools grade (58) by 14 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap; Passive In-Zone Approach. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+11.7° Current 4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

189 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.353

xwOBA (deserved)0.334

Gilbert’s wOBA sits at 0.353, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.334 — a gap of 0.018, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 410 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Stott, Bryson PHI · L	0.75	Ground-ball rateWalk rate	Player · Projection
Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R	0.72	Whiff rateOppo rate	Player · Projection
Loftin, Nick KC · R	0.71	Max exit velocityStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Karros, Kyle COL · R	0.70	Chase rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-21	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	21	2026-09-27	6 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.175

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.308 xwOBA \| 8 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs COL1 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| HR, BB, K
2026-05-20 @ AZ0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| RBI
2026-04-17 @ WSH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-15 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2

Age	26
Height	5' 9"
Weight	195 lb
Debut	2025-08-08

xwOBA Δ	+0.027
wOBA Δ	+0.045

Hitter Projections 20260.308 xwOBA \| 8 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs COL1 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| HR, BB, K
2026-05-20 @ AZ0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| RBI
2026-04-17 @ WSH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-15 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2

Drew Gilbert

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail