Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

CHC at BOS

Shota Imanaga vs Tanner Houck · 3:05 PM ET

Final 6 - 2

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CHC or BOS?

Mithrandir leans CHC over BOS.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

52.6% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CHC 4.6 · BOS 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.0 · Market 7.5 model minus market +1.5 runs

Run line CHC -1.5 · BOS 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.3% · YRFI 50.7% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 11 Available in 11 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

11 matched rows

Home runs · BOS vs CHC Jarren Duran Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.6% F13.4% V11.5%

Model 15.2% Market 10.9% Model-market gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Home runs · BOS vs CHC Roman Anthony Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.4% F14.5% V13.1%

Model 14.1% Market 11.1% Model-market gap +3.0 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · CHC vs BOS Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P56.0% F-- V53.5%

Model 56.0% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Hits · BOS vs CHC Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 70.9% Market 34.5% Provisional model gap +36.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · BOS vs CHC Carlos Narváez Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.6% F-- V--

Model 52.6% Market 29.9% Provisional model gap +22.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · BOS vs CHC Jarren Duran Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P31.6% F-- V--

Model 36.0% Market 19.2% Provisional model gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · BOS vs CHC Willson Contreras Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.2% F-- V--

Model 38.2% Market 21.7% Provisional model gap +16.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · BOS vs CHC Roman Anthony Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.9% F-- V--

Model 51.2% Market 35.1% Provisional model gap +16.1 pts

Open board

Hits · BOS vs CHC Roman Anthony Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 79.9% Market 71.4% Provisional model gap +8.5 pts

Open board

Hits · BOS vs CHC Jarren Duran Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P4.9% F-- V--

Model 67.8% Market 63.0% Provisional model gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · BOS vs CHC Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.2% F-- V--

Model 50.2% Market 48.3% Provisional model gap +1.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.