Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

COL at CWS

Freeland, Kyle vs Kay, Anthony · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean COL or CWS?

Mithrandir leans CWS over COL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

56.8% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs COL 4.2 · CWS 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.4 runs

Run line COL 1.5 · CWS -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 47.6% · YRFI 52.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 8 Available in 8 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

8 matched rows

Strikeouts · COL vs CWS Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P68.0% F-- V48.2%

Model 68.0% Market 58.0% Model-market gap +10.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · CWS vs COL Austin Hays Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.1% F15.3% V9.7%

Model 17.7% Market 11.7% Model-market gap +6.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · CWS vs COL Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.9% F14.5% V9.5%

Model 16.5% Market 11.7% Model-market gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Hits · CWS vs COL Kyle Teel Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 68.1% Market 36.4% Provisional model gap +31.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Chase Meidroth Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P54.9% F-- V--

Model 54.9% Market 25.0% Provisional model gap +29.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Austin Hays Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.2% F-- V--

Model 51.2% Market 34.5% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Colson Montgomery Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.2% F-- V--

Model 51.2% Market 34.5% Provisional model gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.1% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.8% Provisional model gap +3.3 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.