Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

ATL at MIA

Ritchie, JR vs Junk, Janson · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean ATL or MIA?

Mithrandir leans MIA over ATL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

50.4% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs ATL 4.7 · MIA 4.1 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.3 runs

Run line ATL -1.5 · MIA 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.8% · YRFI 50.2% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 17 Available in 17 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

17 matched rows

Home runs · ATL vs MIA Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.0% F13.4% V14.5%

Model 17.2% Market 13.5% Model-market gap +3.7 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · MIA vs ATL Janson Junk Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.9% F-- V50.5%

Model 55.9% Market 53.3% Model-market gap +2.6 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · MIA vs ATL Janson Junk Over 13.5 · Healthy / active roster

P49.5% F-- V--

Model 49.5% Market 49.4% Model-market gap +0.1 pts

Open board

Hits · ATL vs MIA Sean Murphy Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 76.1% Market 45.5% Provisional model gap +30.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Mike Yastrzemski Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.8% F-- V--

Model 51.4% Market 33.9% Provisional model gap +17.5 pts

Open board

Hits · ATL vs MIA Michael Harris II Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 74.8% Market 57.4% Provisional model gap +17.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.9% F-- V--

Model 33.9% Market 17.2% Provisional model gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Austin Riley Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.1% F-- V--

Model 37.0% Market 20.4% Provisional model gap +16.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.0% F-- V--

Model 37.4% Market 20.8% Provisional model gap +16.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.4% F-- V--

Model 38.2% Market 21.7% Provisional model gap +16.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Michael Harris II Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.0% F-- V--

Model 40.0% Market 23.8% Provisional model gap +16.2 pts

Open board

Hits · ATL vs MIA Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 71.5% Market 64.3% Provisional model gap +7.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs MIA Matt Olson Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.8% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.8% Provisional model gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Hits · ATL vs MIA Mike Yastrzemski Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 81.2% Market 78.3% Provisional model gap +2.9 pts

Open board

Hits · ATL vs MIA Matt Olson Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 68.3% Market 66.1% Provisional model gap +2.2 pts

Open board

Hits · ATL vs MIA Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 70.3% Market 68.8% Provisional model gap +1.6 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.