Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

AZ at SD

Soroka, Michael vs Vásquez, Randy · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean AZ or SD?

Mithrandir leans AZ over SD.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

58.6% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs AZ 4.4 · SD 4.3 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.3 runs

Run line AZ -1.5 · SD 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.6% · YRFI 50.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 27 Available in 27 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

27 matched rows

Home runs · SD vs AZ Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.3% F13.3% V9.7%

Model 15.0% Market 9.6% Model-market gap +5.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · SD vs AZ Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.1% F12.2% V15.9%

Model 19.6% Market 15.5% Model-market gap +4.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · AZ vs SD Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.9% F14.4% V12.0%

Model 12.4% Market 9.3% Model-market gap +3.0 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · SD vs AZ Randy Vásquez Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P57.2% F-- V53.2%

Model 57.2% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Strikeouts · AZ vs SD Michael Soroka Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.2% F-- V52.4%

Model 55.2% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Hits · AZ vs SD Pavin Smith Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 71.0% Market 38.5% Provisional model gap +32.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Nolan Arenado Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.6% F-- V--

Model 51.5% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +18.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.2% F-- V--

Model 35.5% Market 18.7% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SD vs AZ Manny Machado Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.5% F-- V--

Model 35.3% Market 18.5% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SD vs AZ Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P31.8% F-- V--

Model 34.5% Market 17.7% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SD vs AZ Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.9% F-- V--

Model 36.6% Market 19.8% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Hits · AZ vs SD Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 81.5% Market 70.6% Provisional model gap +10.9 pts

Open board

Hits · SD vs AZ Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 74.6% Market 64.3% Provisional model gap +10.4 pts

Open board

Hits · AZ vs SD Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 32.8% Market 26.3% Provisional model gap +6.5 pts

Open board

Hits · AZ vs SD Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 65.8% Market 60.0% Provisional model gap +5.8 pts

Open board

Hits · AZ vs SD Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 29.5% Market 24.4% Provisional model gap +5.1 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.