Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

LAA at SEA

Kikuchi, Yusei vs Gilbert, Logan · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean LAA or SEA?

Mithrandir leans SEA over LAA.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

63.7% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs LAA 4.3 · SEA 4.7 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 7.5 model minus market +1.4 runs

Run line LAA 1.5 · SEA -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.9% · YRFI 51.1% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 23 Available in 23 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

23 matched rows

Pitcher outs · SEA vs LAA Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.6% F-- V--

Model 52.6% Market 40.9% Model-market gap +11.7 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · SEA vs LAA Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.5% F-- V47.6%

Model 50.5% Market 41.1% Model-market gap +9.4 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · LAA vs SEA Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.0% F-- V53.8%

Model 45.0% Market 42.8% Model-market gap +2.2 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · LAA vs SEA Yusei Kikuchi Under 15.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.2% F-- V--

Model 52.2% Market 51.4% Model-market gap +0.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · SEA vs LAA Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P86.5% F88.0% V82.9%

Model 83.4% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Hits · SEA vs LAA Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 73.3% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +40.0 pts

Open board

Hits · LAA vs SEA Jo Adell Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 47.0% Market 27.0% Provisional model gap +19.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAA vs SEA Zach Neto Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.5% F-- V--

Model 51.5% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +18.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs LAA Josh Naylor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.5% F-- V--

Model 37.1% Market 20.4% Provisional model gap +16.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs LAA Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.4% F-- V--

Model 42.0% Market 26.7% Provisional model gap +15.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs LAA Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.8% F-- V--

Model 41.9% Market 26.7% Provisional model gap +15.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAA vs SEA Travis D'Arnaud Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.5% F-- V--

Model 50.5% Market 38.5% Provisional model gap +12.1 pts

Open board

Hits · SEA vs LAA Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 39.7% Market 32.3% Provisional model gap +7.4 pts

Open board

Hits · LAA vs SEA Mike Trout Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 46.6% Market 40.0% Provisional model gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs LAA Julio Rodríguez Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.0% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 45.7% Provisional model gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAA vs SEA Josh Lowe Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P23.1% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 45.7% Provisional model gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.