Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

CIN at TOR

Brandon Williamson vs Max Scherzer · 3:07 PM ET

Final 1 - 5

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CIN or TOR?

Mithrandir leans TOR over CIN.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

52.4% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CIN 4.7 · TOR 4.7 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.4 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.9 runs

Run line CIN -1.5 · TOR 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 46.3% · YRFI 53.7% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 13 Available in 13 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

13 matched rows

Strikeouts · TOR vs CIN Max Scherzer Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P74.7% F-- V53.2%

Model 74.7% Market 57.2% Model-market gap +17.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · CIN vs TOR Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P17.0% F15.6% V14.0%

Model 20.0% Market 15.0% Model-market gap +4.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · CIN vs TOR Jj Bleday Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.3% F10.7% V12.1%

Model 16.6% Market 12.8% Model-market gap +3.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · CIN vs TOR Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.2% F13.8% V13.7%

Model 15.8% Market 12.3% Model-market gap +3.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs TOR Tyler Stephenson Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P29.4% F-- V--

Model 52.5% Market 30.3% Provisional model gap +22.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs TOR Jj Bleday Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P29.4% F-- V--

Model 52.5% Market 30.3% Provisional model gap +22.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs TOR Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.1% F-- V--

Model 36.2% Market 19.4% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs TOR Eugenio Suárez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.6% F-- V--

Model 40.6% Market 24.7% Provisional model gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Hits · CIN vs TOR Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 45.9% Market 39.2% Provisional model gap +6.7 pts

Open board

Hits · CIN vs TOR Matt McLain Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 86.9% Market 83.3% Provisional model gap +3.5 pts

Open board

Hits · CIN vs TOR Jj Bleday Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 86.0% Market 82.8% Provisional model gap +3.3 pts

Open board

Hits · CIN vs TOR Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 26.8% Market 24.4% Provisional model gap +2.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs TOR Matt McLain Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P25.5% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 47.8% Provisional model gap +2.3 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.