Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
CIN 1, TOR 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CIN 1, TOR 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
1 – 5final score
6total runs
52% → 100%TOR win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Williamson, Brandon vs Scherzer, Max · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CIN 47.6%TOR 52.4%
4.15 – 4.11mean score
8.26mean total
53%NRFI
10.3%extra innings
4.52 / 5.54starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CIN (gold) vs TOR (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CIN per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge, Carlos | 4.742 | 1.017 | 0.132 | 1.648 | 0.41 | 1.262 | 0.375 |
| De La Cruz, Elly | 4.626 | 1.132 | 0.211 | 2.073 | 0.505 | 1.362 | 0.59 |
| Stewart, Sal | 4.517 | 1.088 | 0.214 | 1.981 | 0.43 | 1.114 | 0.647 |
| Bleday, JJ | 4.412 | 0.859 | 0.2 | 1.666 | 0.552 | 1.102 | 0.57 |
| Brito, Juan | 4.309 | 0.969 | 0.124 | 1.546 | 0.344 | 1.13 | 0.474 |
| Rodríguez, Héctor | 4.201 | 0.908 | 0.152 | 1.566 | 0.277 | 1.166 | 0.481 |
| McLain, Matt | 4.088 | 0.723 | 0.119 | 1.232 | 0.384 | 1.242 | 0.357 |
| Banfield, Will | 3.966 | 0.797 | 0.099 | 1.25 | 0.329 | 1.042 | 0.344 |
| Cabrera, Oswaldo | 3.857 | 0.772 | 0.086 | 1.169 | 0.282 | 1.08 | 0.316 |
Projected batting lines
TOR per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Springer, George | 4.637 | 1.104 | 0.156 | 1.818 | 0.525 | 0.857 | 0.476 |
| Bateman, Brett | 4.523 | 1.22 | 0.084 | 1.696 | 0.501 | 0.913 | 0.427 |
| Okamoto, Kazuma | 4.42 | 0.949 | 0.208 | 1.804 | 0.462 | 1.217 | 0.639 |
| McAdoo, Charles | 4.311 | 0.975 | 0.113 | 1.508 | 0.464 | 0.998 | 0.496 |
| Schneider, Davis | 4.207 | 0.707 | 0.136 | 1.249 | 0.662 | 1.211 | 0.463 |
| Valenzuela, Brandon | 4.1 | 0.874 | 0.119 | 1.389 | 0.481 | 1.014 | 0.465 |
| Straw, Myles | 3.997 | 0.902 | 0.057 | 1.24 | 0.389 | 0.628 | 0.358 |
| Giménez, Andrés | 3.883 | 0.914 | 0.081 | 1.329 | 0.22 | 0.749 | 0.416 |
| Clement, Ernie | 3.764 | 0.921 | 0.059 | 1.258 | 0.21 | 0.443 | 0.366 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Jorge, Carlos vs Scherzer, Max: OUT GB
De La Cruz, Elly vs Scherzer, Max: K
Stewart, Sal vs Scherzer, Max: K
— Bottom 1 —
Springer, George vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
Bateman, Brett vs Williamson, Brandon: K
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Williamson, Brandon: K
— Top 2 —
Bleday, JJ vs Scherzer, Max: HR +1 run (1-0)
Brito, Juan vs Scherzer, Max: BB
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Scherzer, Max: 1B
McLain, Matt vs Scherzer, Max: 2B +2 runs (3-0)
Banfield, Will vs Scherzer, Max: K
Cabrera, Oswaldo vs Scherzer, Max: K
Jorge, Carlos vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
McAdoo, Charles vs Williamson, Brandon: 2B
Schneider, Davis vs Williamson, Brandon: K
Valenzuela, Brandon vs Williamson, Brandon: K
Straw, Myles vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
De La Cruz, Elly vs Scherzer, Max: 1B
Stewart, Sal vs Scherzer, Max: 2B +1 run (4-0)
Bleday, JJ vs Scherzer, Max: OUT GB
Brito, Juan vs Scherzer, Max: K
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Scherzer, Max: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Giménez, Andrés vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
Clement, Ernie vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT AIR
Springer, George vs Williamson, Brandon: BB
Bateman, Brett vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
McLain, Matt vs Scherzer, Max: K
Banfield, Will vs Scherzer, Max: 1B
Cabrera, Oswaldo vs Scherzer, Max: OUT GB
Jorge, Carlos vs Scherzer, Max: BB
De La Cruz, Elly vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT AIR
McAdoo, Charles vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT AIR
Schneider, Davis vs Williamson, Brandon: BB
Valenzuela, Brandon vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Stewart, Sal vs Scherzer, Max: 2B
Bleday, JJ vs Scherzer, Max: OUT GB
Brito, Juan vs Scherzer, Max: 2B +1 run (5-0)
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Ponce, Cody: 1B
McLain, Matt vs Ponce, Cody: BB
Banfield, Will vs Ponce, Cody: OUT GB
Cabrera, Oswaldo vs Ponce, Cody: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Straw, Myles vs Williamson, Brandon: K
Giménez, Andrés vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
Clement, Ernie vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Jorge, Carlos vs Ponce, Cody: BB
De La Cruz, Elly vs Dallas, Chad: HR +2 runs (7-0)
Stewart, Sal vs Dallas, Chad: 2B
Bleday, JJ vs Dallas, Chad: OUT GB
Brito, Juan vs Dallas, Chad: OUT GB
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Dallas, Chad: K
— Bottom 6 —
Springer, George vs Williamson, Brandon: HR +1 run (7-1)
Bateman, Brett vs Williamson, Brandon: BB
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
McAdoo, Charles vs Williamson, Brandon: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
McLain, Matt vs Mantiply, Joe: K
Banfield, Will vs Mantiply, Joe: OUT AIR
Cabrera, Oswaldo vs Mantiply, Joe: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Schneider, Davis vs Williamson, Brandon: K
Valenzuela, Brandon vs Burke, Brock: OUT AIR
Straw, Myles vs Burke, Brock: K
— Top 8 —
Jorge, Carlos vs Mantiply, Joe: OUT AIR
De La Cruz, Elly vs Mantiply, Joe: K
Stewart, Sal vs Mantiply, Joe: BB
Bleday, JJ vs Little, Brendon: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Giménez, Andrés vs Burke, Brock: K
Clement, Ernie vs Burke, Brock: OUT AIR
Springer, George vs Burke, Brock: 2B
Bateman, Brett vs Burke, Brock: K
— Top 9 —
Brito, Juan vs Little, Brendon: K
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Little, Brendon: K
McLain, Matt vs Little, Brendon: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Johnson, Pierce: OUT AIR
McAdoo, Charles vs Johnson, Pierce: OUT AIR
Schneider, Davis vs Johnson, Pierce: K