Section III · Betting · 2026-09-27

NYM at WSH

Sean Manaea vs DJ Herz · 1:05 PM ET

Final 4 - 6

The question

Does Mithrandir lean NYM or WSH?

Mithrandir leans WSH over NYM.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

53.4% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs NYM 4.9 · WSH 4.3 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.1 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.6 runs

Run line NYM -1.5 · WSH 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 47.9% · YRFI 52.1% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 14 Available in 14 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

14 matched rows

Strikeouts · NYM vs WSH Sean Manaea Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P62.5% F-- V46.1%

Model 62.5% Market 46.7% Model-market gap +15.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs NYM Cj Abrams Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.8% F15.6% V16.3%

Model 18.3% Market 13.3% Model-market gap +5.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs NYM Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.1% F13.8% V13.4%

Model 14.4% Market 9.7% Model-market gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs NYM Daylen Lile Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.9% F10.7% V13.6%

Model 14.3% Market 10.4% Model-market gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs NYM Daylen Lile Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.6% F-- V--

Model 52.6% Market 29.9% Provisional model gap +22.7 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs NYM Dylan Crews Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 31.2% Provisional model gap +18.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs NYM Cj Abrams Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.3% F-- V--

Model 51.6% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +18.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs NYM James Wood Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.9% F-- V--

Model 51.2% Market 35.1% Provisional model gap +16.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs NYM Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.1% F-- V--

Model 45.1% Market 32.3% Provisional model gap +12.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs NYM Luis García Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.5% F-- V--

Model 46.5% Market 35.7% Provisional model gap +10.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs NYM Dylan Crews Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P58.4% F-- V--

Model 47.8% Market 39.2% Provisional model gap +8.6 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs NYM James Wood Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 80.5% Market 73.0% Provisional model gap +7.5 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs NYM Jacob Young Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 44.0% Market 39.2% Provisional model gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs NYM Cj Abrams Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 76.7% Market 73.7% Provisional model gap +3.1 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.