Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
NYM 4, WSH 6. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
NYM 4, WSH 6
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
4 – 6final score
10total runs
53% → 100%WSH win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Manaea, Sean vs Herz, DJ · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
NYM 46.6%WSH 53.4%
4.14 – 4.23mean score
8.37mean total
50%NRFI
10.9%extra innings
5.98 / 1.78starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
NYM (gold) vs WSH (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
NYM per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindor, Francisco | 4.787 | 1.019 | 0.179 | 1.792 | 0.409 | 1.148 | 0.466 |
| Soto, Juan | 4.668 | 1.092 | 0.213 | 2.022 | 0.623 | 0.85 | 0.548 |
| Bichette, Bo | 4.561 | 1.114 | 0.111 | 1.663 | 0.335 | 0.993 | 0.456 |
| Benge, Carson | 4.453 | 1.153 | 0.126 | 1.784 | 0.332 | 1.102 | 0.518 |
| Semien, Marcus | 4.349 | 0.913 | 0.117 | 1.452 | 0.339 | 0.97 | 0.476 |
| Baty, Brett | 4.242 | 0.932 | 0.091 | 1.401 | 0.366 | 1.235 | 0.419 |
| Torrens, Luis | 4.128 | 0.944 | 0.128 | 1.533 | 0.275 | 1.019 | 0.46 |
| Ewing, A.J. | 4.017 | 0.921 | 0.079 | 1.347 | 0.338 | 1.133 | 0.361 |
| Mauricio, Ronny | 3.905 | 0.863 | 0.128 | 1.427 | 0.244 | 1.141 | 0.439 |
Projected batting lines
WSH per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood, James | 4.571 | 1.101 | 0.206 | 2.018 | 0.551 | 1.526 | 0.536 |
| Chaparro, Andrés | 4.465 | 1.095 | 0.178 | 1.904 | 0.393 | 1.217 | 0.541 |
| House, Brady | 4.353 | 1.079 | 0.119 | 1.67 | 0.312 | 1.274 | 0.476 |
| Abrams, CJ | 4.256 | 1.093 | 0.196 | 1.98 | 0.323 | 1.204 | 0.637 |
| Crews, Dylan | 4.156 | 0.962 | 0.127 | 1.551 | 0.265 | 1.194 | 0.5 |
| Young, Jacob | 4.049 | 1.013 | 0.088 | 1.498 | 0.279 | 0.864 | 0.43 |
| Lile, Daylen | 3.942 | 0.945 | 0.126 | 1.561 | 0.226 | 0.92 | 0.474 |
| Ford, Harry | 3.818 | 0.799 | 0.104 | 1.275 | 0.356 | 1.039 | 0.383 |
| Nuñez, Nasim | 3.695 | 0.778 | 0.026 | 0.956 | 0.32 | 0.898 | 0.254 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Lindor, Francisco vs Herz, DJ: 1B
Soto, Juan vs Herz, DJ: BB
Bichette, Bo vs Herz, DJ: OUT AIR
Benge, Carson vs Herz, DJ: OUT GB
Semien, Marcus vs Herz, DJ: K
— Bottom 1 —
Wood, James vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
Chaparro, Andrés vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
House, Brady vs Manaea, Sean: BB
Abrams, CJ vs Manaea, Sean: K
— Top 2 —
Baty, Brett vs Herz, DJ: K
Torrens, Luis vs Dion, Will: K
Ewing, A.J. vs Dion, Will: K
— Bottom 2 —
Crews, Dylan vs Manaea, Sean: 2B
Young, Jacob vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
Lile, Daylen vs Manaea, Sean: 1B +1 run (0-1)
Ford, Harry vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
Nuñez, Nasim vs Manaea, Sean: K
— Top 3 —
Mauricio, Ronny vs Dion, Will: 1B
Lindor, Francisco vs Dion, Will: OUT AIR
Soto, Juan vs Dion, Will: 1B
Bichette, Bo vs Dion, Will: OUT AIR
Benge, Carson vs Parker, Mitchell: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Wood, James vs Manaea, Sean: K
Chaparro, Andrés vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
House, Brady vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Semien, Marcus vs Parker, Mitchell: K
Baty, Brett vs Parker, Mitchell: OUT AIR
Torrens, Luis vs Parker, Mitchell: 2B
Ewing, A.J. vs Tolman, Erik: 1B
Mauricio, Ronny vs Tolman, Erik: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Abrams, CJ vs Manaea, Sean: 2B
Crews, Dylan vs Manaea, Sean: K
Young, Jacob vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
Lile, Daylen vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Lindor, Francisco vs Tolman, Erik: HR +1 run (1-1)
Soto, Juan vs Tolman, Erik: 1B
Bichette, Bo vs Ribalta, Orlando: BB
Benge, Carson vs Ribalta, Orlando: K
Semien, Marcus vs Ribalta, Orlando: K
Baty, Brett vs Ribalta, Orlando: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Ford, Harry vs Manaea, Sean: BB
Nuñez, Nasim vs Manaea, Sean: 1B
Wood, James vs Manaea, Sean: 1B +1 run (1-2)
Chaparro, Andrés vs Manaea, Sean: 2B +1 run (1-3)
House, Brady vs Manaea, Sean: BB
Abrams, CJ vs Manaea, Sean: K
Crews, Dylan vs Manaea, Sean: K
Young, Jacob vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Torrens, Luis vs Sinclair, Jack: K
Ewing, A.J. vs Sinclair, Jack: BB
Mauricio, Ronny vs Sinclair, Jack: K
Lindor, Francisco vs Sinclair, Jack: K
— Bottom 6 —
Lile, Daylen vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT GB
Ford, Harry vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT GB
Nuñez, Nasim vs Núñez, Dedniel: BB
Wood, James vs Duarte, Daniel: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Soto, Juan vs Varland, Gus: OUT AIR
Bichette, Bo vs Varland, Gus: OUT AIR
Benge, Carson vs Varland, Gus: K
— Bottom 7 —
Chaparro, Andrés vs Duarte, Daniel: K
House, Brady vs Duarte, Daniel: 1B
Abrams, CJ vs Duarte, Daniel: K
Crews, Dylan vs Duarte, Daniel: HR +2 runs (1-5)
Young, Jacob vs Duarte, Daniel: 1B
Lile, Daylen vs Minter, A.J.: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Semien, Marcus vs Varland, Gus: 1B
Baty, Brett vs Williams, Trevor: BB
Torrens, Luis vs Williams, Trevor: K
Ewing, A.J. vs Williams, Trevor: 1B
Mauricio, Ronny vs Williams, Trevor: 1B +1 run (2-5)
Lindor, Francisco vs Schultz, Paxton: K
Soto, Juan vs Schultz, Paxton: K
— Bottom 8 —
Ford, Harry vs Minter, A.J.: 1B
Nuñez, Nasim vs Minter, A.J.: BB
Wood, James vs Minter, A.J.: K
Chaparro, Andrés vs Edwards Jr., Carl: K
House, Brady vs Edwards Jr., Carl: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Bichette, Bo vs Schultz, Paxton: 3B
Benge, Carson vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT GB
Semien, Marcus vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT AIR
Baty, Brett vs Schultz, Paxton: 1B +1 run (3-5)
Torrens, Luis vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT AIR