Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Yankees Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Yankees

Paul Blackburn

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 196 lb · Age 32

Cards
4
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Yankees Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024544.661414075.1591.29
2025036.23154139.0341.51
2026731.69622185.0691.09
10 Seasons29344.46163882552.14321.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal7 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.46
ERA current pace1.69
ERA rolling p502.82
Observed weight59%
ERA
1.58 2.17 2.82 3.48 4.07
FIP
3.33 3.59 3.88 4.18 4.44
K%
18.4% 19.6% 21.0% 22.4% 23.7%
BB%
7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
84
ERA1.69
99
BB%9.8%
39 -33 vs proj
K%20.5%
38
xwOBA allowed0.296
72 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
76 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
75
Whiff%20.2%
29 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Curveball Stuff+98
10
Cutter Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+85
1
Slider Stuff+103
57
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blackburn, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.2982026-09-22: 0.2982026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.2962026-09-27: 0.296 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blackburn, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blackburn, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.1%Changeup: 21.2%Cutter: 19.4%Curveball: 14.2%Sweeper: 7.4%4-Seam Fastball: 2.7% SI34% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 34%CH 21%FC 19%CU 14%ST 7%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blackburn, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 34% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.5 mphCH87 mphCutter: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.8 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.8 mphST84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphSlider: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.5 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.9% 252 99 qualified
FC 25.4% 189 100 limited sample
CH 18.3% 136 102 limited sample
CB 13.2% 98 98 limited sample
SL 7.4% 55 103 limited sample
FB 1.9% 14 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 1"
Weight196 lb
Debut2017-07-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.86
K% Δ+0.011

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.279
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.296

Blackburn’s wOBA-against sits at 0.279, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.296 — a gap of 0.017, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 86 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching42026-07-09Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.4% K | 4.55 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-14 vs LAA1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-09 vs ATH0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs MIA0 ER / 2 K1.2 IP