Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Schultz, Noah

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
4.6% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal6 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace5.58
ERA rolling p504.75
Observed weight58%
ERA
3.00 3.83 4.75 5.67 6.50
FIP
3.05 3.68 4.38 5.08 5.70
K%
15.3% 17.4% 19.8% 22.2% 24.4%
BB%
7.7% 8.9% 10.1% 11.3% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA5.58
16
BB%9.5%
43 +17 vs proj
K%20.6%
39 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.358
10 -71 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.7%
17 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
23
Whiff%19.6%
24 -39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Sinker Stuff+107
83
Changeup Stuff+106
78
Cutter Stuff+102
53
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+101
43
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Schultz, Noah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.358 2026-09-13: 0.3642026-09-14: 0.3642026-09-18: 0.3602026-09-19: 0.3602026-09-20: 0.3602026-09-21: 0.3562026-09-22: 0.3562026-09-23: 0.3512026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.3512026-09-27: 0.358 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Schultz, Noah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.1%Cutter: 22.1%4-Seam Fastball: 21.7%Sweeper: 17.3%Changeup: 9.6%Curveball: 3.2% SI26% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 26%FC 22%FF 22%ST 17%CH 10%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.2 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 27.2% 233 107 qualified
FB 22.1% 189 102 limited sample
SL 21.7% 186 101 limited sample
FC 19.8% 170 102 limited sample
CH 8.5% 73 106 limited sample
CB 0.7% 6 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 36%, Cutter 17%, 4-Seam Fastball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.16
K% Δ-0.033
Sample73.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.0----
Batters Faced291----
K%23.9%4.6% to 24.6%+/- 10.0%
BB%11.0%6.1% to 15.5%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%24.5%10.5% to 30.7%+/- 10.1%
HR/91.400.05 to 1.41+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2840.043 to 0.272+/- 0.115
Barrel% Allowed8.1%0.6% to 8.3%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.420.53 to 5.42+/- 2.45
FIP4.021.63 to 5.34+/- 1.86
WHIP1.4540.718 to 1.785+/- 0.534
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%5.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

9 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%5.0%
BB%7.3%
Barrel0.1%