Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Cease, Dylan

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.1% K%
Range
23.7% to 35.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
83
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace2.40
ERA rolling p502.83
Observed weight75%
ERA
1.45 2.11 2.83 3.55 4.20
FIP
1.74 2.25 2.82 3.39 3.90
K%
30.6% 31.7% 32.9% 34.2% 35.2%
BB%
9.4% 10.0% 10.7% 11.3% 11.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
86
ERA2.40
93
BB%11.3%
23 -24 vs proj
K%34.5%
98
xwOBA allowed0.265
91 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
82 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo96.6
83
Hard-hit allowed31.6%
92
Whiff%30.5%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+95
14
Fastball Stuff+109
92
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Slider Stuff+104
67
Curveball Stuff+103
53
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cease, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.265 2026-09-13: 0.2592026-09-14: 0.2602026-09-18: 0.2602026-09-19: 0.2652026-09-20: 0.2652026-09-21: 0.2652026-09-22: 0.2652026-09-23: 0.2652026-09-24: 0.2652026-09-25: 0.2652026-09-26: 0.2652026-09-27: 0.265 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cease, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.6%Slider: 30.1%Changeup: 11.5%Knuckle Curve: 10.1%Sinker: 8.1%Sweeper: 3.7% FF37% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SL 30%CH 12%KC 10%SI 8%ST 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 81.6 mphCH82 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 81.7 mphKC82 mphSinker: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 83.5 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.9% 717 109 qualified
SL 34.5% 670 104 qualified
CH 10.4% 203 95 qualified
CB 9.9% 192 103 limited sample
SI 8.3% 162 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 41%, Knuckle Curve 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.36
K% Δ+0.065
Sample172.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.3----
Batters Faced620----
K%28.1%23.7% to 35.9%+/- 6.1%
BB%9.1%6.8% to 11.5%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%29.5%26.7% to 35.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.200.58 to 1.87+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3060.256 to 0.336+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.6% to 11.7%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.762.55 to 6.03+/- 1.74
FIP3.482.47 to 5.21+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2521.006 to 1.551+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2265 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%25.6%
BB%9.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

2298 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%28.4%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.9%