Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	642	74	139	20	2	.243	.324	.437	.761
2025	344	48	65	14	1	.212	.294	.404	.698
2026	545	61	101	24	6	.217	.324	.416	.740
5 Seasons	2072	239	389	73	18	.216	.312	.400	.712

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

67

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

69

Defense4 metrics

44

Speed3 metrics

37

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28

xwOBA preseason	0.307
xwOBA current pace	0.340
xwOBA rolling p50	0.330
Observed weight	72%

xwOBA

0.308 0.319 0.330 0.342 0.352

wOBA

0.319 0.331 0.345 0.358 0.370

ISO

0.169 0.182 0.197 0.211 0.224

K%

20.2% 21.1% 22.2% 23.3% 24.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.3%

73 +20 vs proj

Exit velocity88.3

54

Hard-hit%40.5%

60

xBA0.325

58

xSLG0.570

73

xwOBA0.340

86 +41 vs proj

BB%13.0%

92 +21 vs proj

Bat speed71.3

75

K%22.1%

55

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.2 · LF

50

Arm Strength98.5 · LF

84

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF

13

Range Runs-2.0 · LF

27

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.3 · LF

47

SB Success Rate60.0% · LF

13

Sprint Speed27.5 · LF

50

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-28

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research

84

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research

78

Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research

91

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110

90

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.326 · borderline

7

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample

32

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample

56

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample

76

Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated

23

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated

27

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jj Bleday's tools (81) and production (81) are aligned. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

202 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.345

xwOBA (deserved)0.340

Bleday’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.340 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 553 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Vargas, Miguel CWS · R	0.71	Bat speedMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Muncy, Max LAD · L	0.70	Oppo rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Suzuki, Seiya CHC · R	0.67	Walk rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Torkelson, Spencer DET · R	0.63	Bat speedIsolated power	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-09-26	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	33	2026-09-27	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.199

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.297 xwOBA \| 17 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K
2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, 2 R

Age	28
Height	6' 2"
Weight	205 lb
Debut	2022-07-23

xwOBA Δ	+0.043
wOBA Δ	+0.048

Hitter Projections 20260.297 xwOBA \| 17 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K
2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, 2 R

Jj Bleday

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail