Reference layer
Current snapshot
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Player profile / MIN
Trevor Larnach
Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 223 lb · Age 29
Club MIN
Position --
Roster profile
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 400 | 59 | 92 | 15 | 4 | .259 | .338 | .434 | .772 |
| 2025 | 567 | 62 | 126 | 17 | 4 | .250 | .323 | .404 | .727 |
| 2026 | 433 | 57 | 103 | 13 | 2 | .269 | .352 | .436 | .788 |
| 6 Seasons | 2093 | 255 | 455 | 65 | 12 | .247 | .329 | .410 | .739 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.306
0.317
0.328
0.340
0.350
wOBA
0.337
0.351
0.366
0.382
0.395
ISO
0.152
0.163
0.176
0.189
0.201
K%
17.3%
18.5%
19.9%
21.2%
22.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
62
Exit velocity87.5
45
Hard-hit%36.5%
41
-34 vs proj
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.497
49
xwOBA0.327
75
BB%10.2%
72
Bat speed70.2
59
K%18.0%
77
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · LF
88
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
30
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-4.1 · LF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
43
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.327 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
17
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
61
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
40
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
202 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Larnach’s wOBA sits at 0.366, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.039, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 449 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L | 0.71 | Isolated powerSprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Carrigg, Cole COL · L | 0.70 | Max exit velocityIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Gilbert, Drew SF · L | 0.70 | Strikeout rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Bellinger, Cody NYY · L | 0.69 | Oppo rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-08-26 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 17 | 2026-09-06 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +3.014 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.332 xwOBA | 18 HR | Projection |