The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 255 qualified hitters (336+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Ohtani, Shohei in signal, the comp in amber.
LAD · bats L · 627 PA
Ranked comps for Ohtani, Shohei
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Contreras, Willson BOS · R · 550 PA | 0.63 | Whiff rateStrikeout ratePull rate | Sweet-spot rate -1.4zAvg exit velocity -1.4zHard-hit rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Bauers, Jake MIL · L · 593 PA | 0.63 | Isolated powerHard-hit rateFly-ball rate | Chase rate -1.2zOppo rate +1.2zIn-zone contact +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | De La Cruz, Elly CIN · L · 655 PA | 0.58 | Barrel rateIsolated powerMax exit velocity | Pull rate -2.0zSwing length -1.7zOppo rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Cruz, Oneil PIT · L · 438 PA | 0.54 | Chase ratexwOBA on contactIn-zone contact | Fly-ball rate -1.4zSweet-spot rate -1.4zStrikeout rate +1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Rice, Ben NYY · L · 688 PA | 0.54 | Strikeout rateWalk rateOppo rate | Max exit velocity -2.1zIn-zone contact +1.3zWhiff rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Mayo, Coby BAL · R · 468 PA | 0.52 | Isolated powerSprint speedWhiff rate | Walk rate -1.7zSweet-spot rate -1.5zSwing length -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Kurtz, Nick ATH · L · 452 PA | 0.51 | Avg exit velocityGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact | Pull rate -2.0zWalk rate +1.6zOppo rate +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Alonso, Pete BAL · R · 723 PA | 0.50 | Bat speedxwOBA on contactFly-ball rate | Sprint speed -2.1zPull rate -1.8zSwing length -1.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Schwarber, Kyle PHI · L · 707 PA | 0.49 | In-zone contactWhiff rateFly-ball rate | Ground-ball rate -1.8zSprint speed -1.6zMax exit velocity -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Harper, Bryce PHI · L · 696 PA | 0.48 | Whiff rateGround-ball rateBat speed | Barrel rate -1.5zSwing length -1.4zxwOBA on contact -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Crow-Armstrong, Pete CHC · L · 733 PA | 0.47 | Bat speedStrikeout ratePull rate | Ground-ball rate -1.8zSprint speed +1.4zAvg exit velocity -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 647 PA | 0.47 | Swing lengthPull rateIn-zone contact | Max exit velocity -1.6zxwOBA on contact -1.6zSweet-spot rate -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.