Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Lewis, Royce
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
63
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.286
0.296
0.307
0.318
0.328
wOBA
0.281
0.294
0.307
0.321
0.333
ISO
0.141
0.151
0.163
0.175
0.185
K%
21.8%
22.8%
24.0%
25.2%
26.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.0%
81
Exit velocity89.3
69
Hard-hit%39.1%
54
xBA0.328
62
xSLG0.542
63
xwOBA0.303
51
BB%7.4%
36
Bat speed72.7
87
K%25.2%
38
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 1B
56
Arm Strength83.2 · 1B
17
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
14
Range Runs-2.9 · 1B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · 1B
80
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
94
Sprint Speed27.7 · 1B
56
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions65.6% · rebadged research
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
11
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
82
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
217 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| Sample | 528 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 438 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.284 to 0.357 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.184 | 0.141 to 0.257 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 4.7% to 8.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 38.2% to 47.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| K% | 21.8% | 17.2% to 27.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.3% to 10.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.230 to 0.310 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
297 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHP
771 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |