The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 255 qualified hitters (336+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Kelly, Carson in signal, the comp in amber.

CHC · bats R · 441 PA

Ranked comps for Kelly, Carson

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 470 PA 0.78 Fly-ball rateGround-ball rateAvg exit velocity Walk rate -1.0zChase rate +1.0zSprint speed +0.8z
02 Horwitz, Spencer PIT · L · 466 PA 0.77 Barrel rateSweet-spot rateAvg exit velocity Pull rate +1.2zHard-hit rate -0.8zSprint speed -0.8z
03 Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 486 PA 0.76 Barrel rateAvg exit velocityIsolated power Walk rate +1.3zChase rate -1.0zPull rate +1.0z
04 Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 390 PA 0.75 Ground-ball ratexwOBA on contactStrikeout rate Sweet-spot rate +1.3zIn-zone contact -1.3zMax exit velocity +0.7z
05 Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 400 PA 0.73 Bat speedGround-ball rateChase rate Sweet-spot rate +1.6zSprint speed -1.1zStrikeout rate +0.9z
06 Garcia, Maikel KC · R · 350 PA 0.73 Pull rateGround-ball rateWalk rate Sprint speed +1.3zAvg exit velocity +0.9zWhiff rate -0.8z
07 Bohm, Alec PHI · R · 649 PA 0.73 Chase rateIn-zone contactIsolated power Avg exit velocity +1.4zPull rate -0.9zHard-hit rate +0.9z
08 Cronenworth, Jake SD · L · 440 PA 0.71 Whiff rateMax exit velocityIn-zone contact Sprint speed +1.6zStrikeout rate +1.0zHard-hit rate -0.9z
09 Vaughn, Andrew MIL · R · 354 PA 0.71 Strikeout rateBarrel rateGround-ball rate Oppo rate +1.3zAvg exit velocity +1.3zMax exit velocity +1.2z
10 Rengifo, Luis MIL · L · 374 PA 0.70 Avg exit velocityWalk rateBat speed Fly-ball rate -1.3zGround-ball rate +1.3zSprint speed +0.9z
11 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 528 PA 0.69 Avg exit velocityIn-zone contactFly-ball rate Sprint speed +1.3zStrikeout rate +1.1zWalk rate +0.9z
12 Springer, George TOR · R · 534 PA 0.65 Sweet-spot rateWalk rateChase rate Swing length +1.3zMax exit velocity +1.1zOppo rate -1.0z

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.