Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Early, Connelly

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.2% K%
Range
22.8% to 37.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.50
ERA current pace3.44
ERA rolling p503.46
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.15 2.77 3.46 4.15 4.77
FIP
2.72 3.20 3.74 4.27 4.76
K%
22.6% 24.0% 25.7% 27.3% 28.8%
BB%
6.3% 7.1% 8.0% 8.9% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
74
ERA3.44
72
BB%8.6%
53 -15 vs proj
K%24.1%
66 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
46
Barrel allowed10.4%
11
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed40.9%
32
Whiff%22.2%
47 -37 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Slider Stuff+99
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Early, Connelly · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-18: 0.3202026-09-19: 0.3202026-09-20: 0.3202026-09-21: 0.3202026-09-22: 0.3202026-09-23: 0.3202026-09-24: 0.3202026-09-25: 0.3202026-09-26: 0.3202026-09-27: 0.3172026-09-28: 0.3172026-09-29: 0.317 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Early, Connelly · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.6%Sinker: 20.1%Changeup: 18.0%Curveball: 11.0%Slider: 8.6%Sweeper: 7.8% FF35% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SI 20%CH 18%CU 11%SL 9%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.7 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 80.1 mphCU80 mphSlider: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.5 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.1% 403 102 qualified
CH 19.9% 235 103 qualified
SI 19.1% 226 98 qualified
SL 15.3% 181 99 limited sample
CB 11.5% 136 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Changeup 18%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.18
K% Δ-0.031
Sample99.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced275----
K%27.2%22.8% to 37.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%7.6%3.2% to 9.8%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.6%21.8% to 32.9%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.120.05 to 1.46+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3060.202 to 0.328+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed9.1%3.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.621.62 to 5.19+/- 1.78
FIP2.880.80 to 3.58+/- 1.39
WHIP1.2150.914 to 1.525+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

33 career BF

xwOBA0.174
K%29.9%
BB%3.8%
Barrel4.6%
vs RHH

65 career BF

xwOBA0.193
K%25.0%
BB%4.1%
Barrel5.5%