Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Tong, Jonah

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
16.9% to 29.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal5 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.24
ERA current pace4.21
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.39 3.26 4.23 5.20 6.07
FIP
2.24 2.71 3.24 3.77 4.24
K%
20.0% 22.0% 24.2% 26.4% 28.4%
BB%
6.6% 7.7% 8.9% 10.1% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
63
ERA4.21
46
BB%9.2%
47
K%25.5%
73 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
87 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
54 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
58
Hard-hit allowed37.1%
61
Whiff%27.2%
82 +39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+97
5
Cutter Stuff+101
45
Fastball Stuff+102
53
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tong, Jonah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.274 2026-09-18: 0.2742026-09-19: 0.2742026-09-20: 0.2742026-09-21: 0.2842026-09-22: 0.2842026-09-23: 0.2842026-09-24: 0.2842026-09-25: 0.2842026-09-26: 0.2842026-09-27: 0.274 2026-09-18 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tong, Jonah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tong, Jonah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.8%Changeup: 25.6%Cutter: 20.4%Curveball: 9.2% FF45% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 45%CH 26%FC 20%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tong, Jonah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.9 mphCH87 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.0% 120 102 limited sample
CH 25.2% 72 99 limited sample
FC 22.7% 65 101 limited sample
CB 10.1% 29 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Changeup 27%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.37
K% Δ+0.031
Sample35.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.8----
Batters Faced305----
K%22.4%16.9% to 29.4%+/- 6.2%
BB%9.1%5.5% to 11.8%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%21.7%14.8% to 25.8%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.350.51 to 1.94+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3160.236 to 0.337+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.6% to 12.1%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.582.52 to 7.60+/- 2.54
FIP4.112.16 to 4.93+/- 1.39
WHIP1.4051.112 to 1.710+/- 0.299
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

41 career BF

xwOBA0.232
K%17.6%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

47 career BF

xwOBA0.227
K%18.5%
BB%6.1%
Barrel8.3%