Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Pintaro, Jonathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
0.7% to 22.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.32
ERA current pace5.28
ERA rolling p504.66
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.59 3.57 4.66 5.75 6.72
FIP
2.47 3.30 4.23 5.16 5.99
K%
11.6% 15.0% 18.9% 22.7% 26.1%
BB%
5.3% 7.3% 9.5% 11.7% 13.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA5.28
21
BB%12.2%
17 -32 vs proj
K%22.9%
57
xwOBA allowed0.319
42 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%23.2%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+91
6
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Mithrandir Stuff+100
30
Sinker Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+97
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pintaro, Jonathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-13: 0.3132026-09-14: 0.3132026-09-18: 0.3162026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3172026-09-22: 0.3172026-09-23: 0.3172026-09-24: 0.3172026-09-25: 0.3172026-09-26: 0.3192026-09-27: 0.319 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pintaro, Jonathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pintaro, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 53.0%Sinker: 19.9%4-Seam Fastball: 16.1%Changeup: 6.5%Curveball: 4.6% FC53% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 53%SI 20%FF 16%CH 7%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pintaro, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 53% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 55.8% 183 101 limited sample
SI 18.3% 60 97 limited sample
FB 13.1% 43 100 limited sample
CH 5.8% 19 91 limited sample
SL 4.9% 16 97 limited sample
CB 2.1% 7 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 72%, 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Changeup 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.06
K% Δ+0.001
Sample30.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.0----
Batters Faced138----
K%22.8%0.7% to 22.5%+/- 10.9%
BB%9.0%0.7% to 12.9%+/- 6.1%
Whiff%22.9%2.3% to 26.1%+/- 11.9%
HR/91.150.00 to 1.67+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.2850.030 to 0.343+/- 0.156
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.220.28 to 5.88+/- 2.80
FIP3.920.63 to 5.42+/- 2.39
WHIP1.1780.446 to 1.660+/- 0.607
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.040
K%1.6%
BB%2.7%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.038
K%1.7%
BB%2.0%
Barrel0.1%