Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Cameron, Noah

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 24.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.12
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.93 3.49 4.12 4.74 5.31
FIP
3.35 3.73 4.15 4.57 4.95
K%
18.8% 19.6% 20.5% 21.4% 22.3%
BB%
6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
63
ERA4.11
49
BB%7.8%
65
K%21.1%
43 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
50 +30 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
36
Fastball velo92.3
19
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
52
Whiff%23.3%
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+101
39
Cutter Stuff+103
71
Fastball Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cameron, Noah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-13: 0.3072026-09-14: 0.3062026-09-18: 0.3062026-09-19: 0.3062026-09-20: 0.3062026-09-21: 0.3102026-09-22: 0.3102026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.3122026-09-27: 0.312 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cameron, Noah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cameron, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.3%Cutter: 21.2%Changeup: 20.0%Curveball: 16.3%Slider: 13.3%Sinker: 4.9% FF24% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 24%FC 21%CH 20%CU 16%SL 13%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cameron, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 24″48″72″96″ 4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.5 mphFF92 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphSlider: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphSinker: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphEephus: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 94″ drop, 57.4 mphEP57 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.2% 507 103 qualified
FC 20.6% 414 103 qualified
CH 19.9% 401 104 qualified
CB 15.3% 308 101 qualified
SL 14.1% 283 104 qualified
SI 5.0% 100 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Cutter 22%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.53
K% Δ+0.023
Sample179.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.3----
Batters Faced587----
K%18.8%16.2% to 24.5%+/- 4.2%
BB%7.7%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%22.9%19.7% to 28.1%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.410.97 to 1.99+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3420.288 to 0.362+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.5%4.7% to 9.8%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.642.56 to 5.53+/- 1.49
FIP4.333.65 to 5.65+/- 1.00
WHIP1.3620.962 to 1.572+/- 0.305
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%18.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHH

423 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%17.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.0%