Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Smith-Shawver, Aj

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace6.60
ERA rolling p504.87
Observed weight38%
ERA
3.62 4.21 4.87 5.53 6.13
FIP
3.41 3.99 4.63 5.27 5.84
K%
17.0% 18.8% 20.8% 22.8% 24.6%
BB%
6.3% 7.3% 8.5% 9.7% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
17
ERA6.60
5
BB%11.0%
26 -40 vs proj
K%18.6%
26 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
27 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
25
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
58
Whiff%22.0%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+92
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith-Shawver, Aj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-18: 0.3322026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3192026-09-22: 0.3192026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3192026-09-25: 0.3192026-09-26: 0.3302026-09-27: 0.3302026-09-28: 0.3342026-09-29: 0.335 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith-Shawver, Aj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 43%43%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith-Shawver, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.1%Split-Finger: 35.6%Curveball: 10.1%Sinker: 7.3%Slider: 4.7%Cutter: 3.1% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%FS 36%CU 10%SI 7%SL 5%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith-Shawver, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 36% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.0 mphFS83 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSinker: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSlider: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphCutter: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.8% 134 105 limited sample
CB 15.1% 35 104 limited sample
SI 12.9% 30 101 limited sample
SL 12.9% 30 92 limited sample
FC 1.3% 3 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Split-Finger 34%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.29
K% Δ-0.027
Sample31.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.3----
Batters Faced289----
K%21.3%16.9% to 28.0%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.8%4.7% to 10.7%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%23.5%19.3% to 29.0%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.410.63 to 1.98+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3120.261 to 0.328+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 12.9%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.311.78 to 5.22+/- 1.72
FIP3.652.36 to 5.70+/- 1.67
WHIP1.2320.962 to 1.514+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

219 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%19.5%
BB%7.2%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel9.4%