Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Povich, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
19.6% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal6 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace4.38
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.24 3.73 4.28 4.82 5.31
FIP
3.77 4.10 4.47 4.84 5.17
K%
18.2% 19.7% 21.3% 23.0% 24.4%
BB%
6.5% 7.3% 8.3% 9.3% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
19
ERA4.38
41
BB%9.4%
45
K%17.5%
18 -36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.331
29
Barrel allowed7.0%
58 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
13
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%20.5%
31 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+99
22
Changeup Stuff+99
28
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Sinker Stuff+95
11
Slider Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Povich, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.331 2026-09-13: 0.3312026-09-14: 0.3312026-09-18: 0.3312026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3322026-09-22: 0.3322026-09-23: 0.3322026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.3312026-09-27: 0.331 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Povich, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Povich, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.8%Curveball: 22.4%Slider: 13.1%Changeup: 10.1%Sinker: 8.5% FF46% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 46%CU 22%SL 13%CH 10%SI 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Povich, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 63″ drop, 76.4 mphCU76 mphSlider: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.1 mphCH85 mphSinker: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.4% 244 103 qualified
CB 22.9% 126 98 limited sample
SL 14.0% 77 96 limited sample
CH 10.2% 56 99 limited sample
SI 8.5% 47 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.309 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Curveball 22%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.22
K% Δ-0.052
Sample36.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.7----
Batters Faced319----
K%22.7%19.6% to 28.5%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.3%6.0% to 10.8%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.1%19.8% to 27.5%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.430.90 to 2.05+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3180.295 to 0.341+/- 0.023
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 12.8%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.163.33 to 6.20+/- 1.43
FIP4.083.12 to 5.05+/- 0.97
WHIP1.2981.109 to 1.635+/- 0.263
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

219 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%23.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

641 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%21.6%
BB%8.2%
Barrel10.0%