Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Rodriguez, Bradgley

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
12.9% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
89
Arsenal5 metrics
89
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace2.25
ERA rolling p502.73
Observed weight57%
ERA
0.79 1.71 2.73 3.75 4.67
FIP
1.65 2.41 3.25 4.08 4.84
K%
21.3% 23.2% 25.3% 27.3% 29.2%
BB%
5.8% 6.8% 7.9% 8.9% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
87
ERA2.25
93
BB%7.3%
74 +34 vs proj
K%27.1%
82 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.239
98 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
92 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo98.0
95
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
95
Whiff%28.0%
87 +39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+113
98
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Cutter Stuff+107
95
Fastball Stuff+109
92
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Bradgley · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.239 2026-09-13: 0.2312026-09-14: 0.2312026-09-18: 0.2392026-09-19: 0.2392026-09-20: 0.2392026-09-21: 0.2372026-09-22: 0.2372026-09-23: 0.2372026-09-24: 0.2372026-09-25: 0.2372026-09-26: 0.2372026-09-27: 0.239 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Bradgley · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Bradgley · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 42.4%4-Seam Fastball: 26.1%Sinker: 25.3%Slider: 5.7%Cutter: 0.5% CH42% · 90 mphprimary pitch CH 42%FF 26%SI 25%SL 6%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Bradgley · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Changeup: 42% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.3 mphFF98 mphSinker: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 97.8 mphSI98 mphSlider: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.8 mphSL89 mphCutter: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.6 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 42.3% 287 113 qualified
FB 25.7% 174 109 limited sample
SI 25.5% 173 104 limited sample
FC 6.0% 41 107 limited sample
SL 0.4% 3 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 25%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.26
K% Δ+0.047
Sample77.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.0----
Batters Faced130----
K%22.4%12.9% to 29.2%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.7%3.0% to 11.1%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%22.4%9.8% to 27.9%+/- 9.0%
HR/91.090.00 to 1.77+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.3030.104 to 0.390+/- 0.143
Barrel% Allowed7.0%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.510.00 to 5.43+/- 2.71
FIP3.760.76 to 5.22+/- 2.23
WHIP1.3290.439 to 1.617+/- 0.589
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

11 career BF

xwOBA0.117
K%14.4%
BB%5.4%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

20 career BF

xwOBA0.115
K%14.7%
BB%4.2%
Barrel0.1%