Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Black, Mason

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
14.0% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
13
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
14
Arsenal7 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace4.31
ERA rolling p504.14
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.38 3.21 4.14 5.06 5.89
FIP
3.45 4.14 4.90 5.66 6.35
K%
11.9% 14.3% 17.0% 19.7% 22.1%
BB%
7.0% 8.4% 9.8% 11.3% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.63
10
ERA4.31
43
BB%14.1%
6 -65 vs proj
K%13.4%
4 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.387
2 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.9%
15 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
4
Whiff%15.9%
5 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+105
77
Curveball Stuff+108
99
Cutter Stuff+86
0
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+108
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Black, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.387 2026-09-13: 0.3872026-09-14: 0.3872026-09-18: 0.3872026-09-19: 0.3872026-09-20: 0.3872026-09-21: 0.3872026-09-22: 0.3872026-09-23: 0.3872026-09-24: 0.3872026-09-25: 0.3872026-09-26: 0.3872026-09-27: 0.387 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Black, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Black, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 25.9%4-Seam Fastball: 21.2%Sweeper: 20.3%Slider: 14.0%Cutter: 7.7%Curveball: 6.7% SI26% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 26%FF 21%ST 20%SL 14%FC 8%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Black, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 26% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.0 mphST83 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mphCutter: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.5 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.8% 130 108 limited sample
SI 26.2% 98 105 limited sample
FB 21.7% 81 97 limited sample
FC 8.6% 32 86 limited sample
CH 4.8% 18 105 limited sample
CB 4.0% 15 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Sweeper 31%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.03
K% Δ-0.080
Sample30.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.0----
Batters Faced144----
K%21.4%14.0% to 29.6%+/- 7.8%
BB%7.4%3.6% to 11.2%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%19.2%10.1% to 24.4%+/- 7.2%
HR/91.450.48 to 2.29+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.3290.261 to 0.403+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.8% to 12.5%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.342.46 to 7.28+/- 2.41
FIP4.042.70 to 6.67+/- 1.99
WHIP1.3621.061 to 1.793+/- 0.366
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

85 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%15.7%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

103 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%16.6%
BB%4.7%
Barrel8.0%