Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Burns, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
30.3% K%
Range
27.0% to 41.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever Age 23 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.18
ERA current pace2.86
ERA rolling p503.21
Observed weight73%
ERA
1.74 2.44 3.21 3.99 4.69
FIP
2.38 2.81 3.29 3.77 4.20
K%
27.7% 28.9% 30.2% 31.6% 32.8%
BB%
7.3% 7.9% 8.5% 9.2% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
74
ERA2.86
85
BB%8.6%
52
K%29.4%
90
xwOBA allowed0.279
85
Barrel allowed8.8%
29 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo97.7
92
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
43
Whiff%29.3%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+112
99
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+102
50
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Sinker Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burns, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.279 2026-09-13: 0.2762026-09-14: 0.2772026-09-18: 0.2772026-09-19: 0.2792026-09-20: 0.2792026-09-21: 0.2792026-09-22: 0.2792026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.2792026-09-27: 0.279 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burns, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.5%Slider: 38.6%Changeup: 5.2%Sinker: 0.4%Curveball: 0.2% FF56% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 56%SL 39%CH 5%SI 0%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphSlider: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphSinker: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.3% 997 112 qualified
SL 38.3% 690 102 qualified
CH 5.7% 102 98 limited sample
SI 0.7% 12 107 limited sample
CB 0.1% 1 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Slider 34%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.00
K% Δ-0.009
Sample158.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.7----
Batters Faced287----
K%30.3%27.0% to 41.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.1%5.3% to 11.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%28.9%24.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.230.69 to 1.76+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.2930.253 to 0.336+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.7%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.862.99 to 6.77+/- 1.89
FIP3.121.89 to 4.23+/- 1.17
WHIP1.2841.017 to 1.636+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.254
K%30.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

93 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%30.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel6.2%