Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Ahlstrom, Robby

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.19
ERA current pace6.08
ERA rolling p504.37
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.64 3.46 4.37 5.27 6.09
FIP
2.36 3.32 4.39 5.46 6.42
K%
12.0% 15.0% 18.3% 21.7% 24.7%
BB%
4.4% 5.7% 7.2% 8.7% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
29
ERA6.08
10
BB%9.1%
48 -17 vs proj
K%20.6%
39
xwOBA allowed0.319
43 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
56
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
95
Whiff%23.0%
53 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+108
90
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Slider Stuff+105
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ahlstrom, Robby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3192026-09-19: 0.3192026-09-20: 0.3192026-09-21: 0.3192026-09-22: 0.3192026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3192026-09-25: 0.3192026-09-26: 0.3192026-09-27: 0.319 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ahlstrom, Robby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ahlstrom, Robby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.6%Slider: 25.8%Sinker: 22.2%Changeup: 15.7%Curveball: 3.7% FF33% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 26%SI 22%CH 16%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ahlstrom, Robby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphSinker: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.0% 103 98 limited sample
SL 27.1% 82 105 limited sample
SI 18.5% 56 98 limited sample
CH 17.5% 53 108 limited sample
CB 3.0% 9 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.08
K% Δ-0.011
Sample36.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.3----
Batters Faced128----
K%21.7%0.1% to 20.8%+/- 10.3%
BB%7.8%0.1% to 8.7%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%25.7%5.4% to 30.7%+/- 12.6%
HR/91.290.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2840.011 to 0.320+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.000.00 to 4.79+/- 2.40
FIP4.070.73 to 6.38+/- 2.82
WHIP1.1180.035 to 1.298+/- 0.631
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%