Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Misiorowski, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
28.9% K%
Range
24.0% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
95
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
95
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace1.86
ERA rolling p502.42
Observed weight74%
ERA
1.19 1.77 2.42 3.07 3.65
FIP
1.48 1.93 2.44 2.94 3.39
K%
32.6% 33.7% 35.0% 36.2% 37.3%
BB%
6.0% 6.5% 7.1% 7.8% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.82
99
ERA1.86
97
BB%6.7%
83 +29 vs proj
K%37.1%
99
xwOBA allowed0.226
99 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.8%
95 +53 vs proj
Fastball velo100.5
100
Hard-hit allowed33.9%
83
Whiff%34.3%
99 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Fastball Stuff+110
96
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Slider Stuff+111
97
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Curveball Stuff+101
31
Cutter Stuff+104
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Misiorowski, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.226 2026-09-18: 0.2242026-09-19: 0.2242026-09-20: 0.2242026-09-21: 0.2232026-09-22: 0.2232026-09-23: 0.2232026-09-24: 0.2232026-09-25: 0.2232026-09-26: 0.2232026-09-27: 0.2232026-09-28: 0.2262026-09-29: 0.226 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Misiorowski, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.2%Cutter: 13.5%Slider: 11.5%Curveball: 10.4%Changeup: 1.3%Sinker: 0.1% FF63% · 101 mphprimary pitch FF 63%FC 14%SL 11%CU 10%CH 1%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 63% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 100.5 mphFF101 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.8 mphFC96 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 91.9 mphSL92 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 87.9 mphCU88 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.5 mphCH92 mphSinker: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 100.6 mphSI101 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.0% 1150 110 qualified
SL 18.8% 349 111 qualified
CB 10.3% 191 101 limited sample
FC 8.0% 148 104 limited sample
CH 0.9% 16 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.65
K% Δ+0.082
Sample178.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.8----
Batters Faced288----
K%28.9%24.0% to 35.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 12.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%27.2%21.6% to 30.5%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.160.84 to 1.80+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.2870.243 to 0.317+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.512.70 to 5.84+/- 1.57
FIP3.452.42 to 4.86+/- 1.22
WHIP1.1820.907 to 1.512+/- 0.303
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

161 career BF

xwOBA0.228
K%28.5%
BB%8.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.229
K%24.2%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.9%