Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Gibson, Trey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
1.9% to 21.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
12
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
21
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace6.13
ERA rolling p505.18
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.31 4.20 5.18 6.16 7.04
FIP
2.93 3.88 4.93 5.98 6.92
K%
12.7% 15.4% 18.4% 21.4% 24.1%
BB%
8.1% 9.5% 11.1% 12.7% 14.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.73
5
ERA6.13
9
BB%14.5%
5 -44 vs proj
K%19.9%
35
xwOBA allowed0.372
5 -76 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
34 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
57
Hard-hit allowed45.8%
7
Whiff%20.5%
31 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+105
85
Cutter Stuff+106
91
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+93
9
Slider Stuff+102
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gibson, Trey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.372 2026-09-13: 0.3912026-09-14: 0.3912026-09-18: 0.3912026-09-19: 0.3912026-09-20: 0.3912026-09-21: 0.3912026-09-22: 0.3912026-09-23: 0.3912026-09-24: 0.3722026-09-25: 0.3722026-09-26: 0.3722026-09-27: 0.372 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gibson, Trey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Trey · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 22.9%4-Seam Fastball: 21.2%Slider: 20.8%Cutter: 19.7%Curveball: 13.6%Sweeper: 1.7% SI23% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 23%FF 21%SL 21%FC 20%CU 14%ST 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Trey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 87.8 mphSL88 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 84.1 mphCU84 mphSweeper: 2% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 23.4% 106 100 limited sample
SL 20.8% 94 102 limited sample
SI 20.5% 93 93 limited sample
FC 19.9% 90 106 limited sample
CB 15.5% 70 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.60
K% Δ-0.017
Sample39.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.3----
Batters Faced146----
K%21.6%1.9% to 21.3%+/- 9.7%
BB%9.0%0.8% to 10.3%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%23.1%2.3% to 26.7%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.100.00 to 1.22+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.2840.010 to 0.319+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.0%0.1% to 9.0%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.532.37 to 7.60+/- 2.62
FIP3.970.64 to 6.24+/- 2.80
WHIP1.3230.517 to 1.754+/- 0.619
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%1.5%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

6 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%1.6%
BB%2.4%
Barrel0.1%