Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Pfaadt, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
17.9% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal7 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.55
ERA current pace3.77
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.87 3.40 4.00 4.59 5.13
FIP
3.23 3.53 3.85 4.17 4.46
K%
16.6% 17.5% 18.6% 19.7% 20.7%
BB%
4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.77
60
BB%5.5%
93
K%17.3%
16 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.305
61 +31 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
57 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
29
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
78
Whiff%20.0%
26 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Sinker Stuff+104
62
Changeup Stuff+108
88
Curveball Stuff+101
32
Cutter Stuff+107
95
Slider Stuff+101
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pfaadt, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3032026-09-22: 0.3032026-09-23: 0.3032026-09-24: 0.3032026-09-25: 0.3032026-09-26: 0.3052026-09-27: 0.305 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pfaadt, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pfaadt, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.6%Sinker: 16.7%Changeup: 16.1%Curveball: 14.7%Sweeper: 14.5%Cutter: 11.4% FF27% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 27%SI 17%CH 16%CU 15%ST 14%FC 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pfaadt, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSinker: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.9 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.4 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.0% 333 107 qualified
SI 16.8% 216 104 qualified
CH 15.4% 197 108 limited sample
CB 15.4% 197 101 limited sample
SL 15.2% 195 101 limited sample
FC 11.3% 145 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 24%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.96
K% Δ-0.042
Sample141.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.5----
Batters Faced630----
K%21.5%17.9% to 27.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.0%3.8% to 7.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%22.0%19.0% to 26.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.510.91 to 1.99+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.284 to 0.361+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.6% to 12.7%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.733.61 to 6.57+/- 1.48
FIP4.142.96 to 4.57+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2351.077 to 1.547+/- 0.235
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1080 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%19.3%
BB%5.5%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1037 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%23.3%
BB%4.6%
Barrel9.0%