Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Palencia, Daniel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
21.0% to 34.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal4 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace3.64
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.10 2.82 3.61 4.41 5.13
FIP
2.95 3.29 3.68 4.06 4.40
K%
20.9% 23.2% 25.7% 28.2% 30.5%
BB%
5.8% 7.1% 8.6% 10.1% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
71
ERA3.64
65
BB%8.7%
51
K%24.6%
68
xwOBA allowed0.298
69
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo99.2
99
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
88
Whiff%24.8%
66
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Sinker Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+100
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Palencia, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.298 2026-09-13: 0.3202026-09-14: 0.3182026-09-18: 0.3162026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3062026-09-22: 0.3062026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3012026-09-25: 0.3012026-09-26: 0.2982026-09-27: 0.298 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Palencia, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Palencia, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 66.2%Slider: 23.9%Split-Finger: 6.2%Sinker: 3.7% FF66% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 66%SL 24%FS 6%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Palencia, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 66% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 99.2 mphFF99 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.4 mphFS89 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 98.8 mphSI99 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 72.2% 218 106 qualified
SL 23.2% 70 100 limited sample
SI 4.6% 14 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 71%, Slider 24%, Split-Finger 4%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.25
K% Δ-0.012
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.1----
Batters Faced150----
K%25.8%21.0% to 34.7%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.7%5.8% to 13.7%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.8%20.9% to 31.9%+/- 5.5%
HR/90.950.53 to 1.91+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3070.242 to 0.339+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed6.2%3.1% to 10.0%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.392.11 to 6.20+/- 2.04
FIP3.342.66 to 4.62+/- 0.98
WHIP1.2031.015 to 1.623+/- 0.304
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

200 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%25.1%
BB%10.3%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

252 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%24.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel5.1%