Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Seymour, Carson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
12.9% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
30
ERA4.85
29
BB%11.9%
19
K%16.6%
13
xwOBA allowed0.374
5
Barrel allowed8.5%
33
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%21.1%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-28
Cutter Stuff+95
8
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+90
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Seymour, Carson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.374 2026-09-14: 0.3872026-09-18: 0.3892026-09-19: 0.3802026-09-20: 0.3802026-09-21: 0.3872026-09-22: 0.3872026-09-23: 0.3852026-09-24: 0.3852026-09-25: 0.3852026-09-26: 0.3852026-09-27: 0.3802026-09-28: 0.374 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Seymour, Carson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Carson · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.3%Slider: 22.8%Cutter: 22.1%4-Seam Fastball: 17.6%Split-Finger: 2.6%Curveball: 1.4% SI33% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 33%SL 23%FC 22%FF 18%FS 3%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Carson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 33% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 94.3 mphFC94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSplit-Finger: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 91.7 mphFS92 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.4 mphCU85 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.7 mphCH92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 34.7% 139 103 limited sample
SL 23.9% 96 90 limited sample
FC 23.7% 95 95 limited sample
FB 17.5% 70 98 limited sample
CB 0.2% 1 72 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.0----
Batters Faced280----
K%19.6%12.9% to 26.4%+/- 6.7%
BB%8.7%5.5% to 11.4%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%22.3%17.4% to 28.1%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.480.82 to 2.40+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.3470.285 to 0.377+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.9% to 16.1%+/- 5.1%
ERA4.762.67 to 6.55+/- 1.94
FIP4.723.69 to 6.91+/- 1.61
WHIP1.3401.049 to 1.723+/- 0.337
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

76 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%13.3%
BB%7.3%
Barrel13.5%
vs RHH

80 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%15.0%
BB%5.9%
Barrel11.8%