Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Abner, Philip

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
11.0% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
6
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
9
Arsenal5 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace7.11
ERA rolling p504.86
Observed weight29%
ERA
2.71 3.73 4.86 5.98 7.00
FIP
3.51 4.22 5.01 5.80 6.50
K%
14.1% 16.6% 19.4% 22.2% 24.7%
BB%
6.3% 8.2% 10.3% 12.4% 14.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.69
7
ERA7.11
3
BB%12.2%
16 -19 vs proj
K%13.3%
3 -40 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.408
1 -38 vs proj
Barrel allowed16.4%
1 -40 vs proj
Fastball velo90.5
5
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
40
Whiff%14.6%
2 -48 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Curveball Stuff+99
11
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+97
17
Slider Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abner, Philip · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.408 2026-09-13: 0.3702026-09-14: 0.3702026-09-18: 0.3662026-09-19: 0.3962026-09-20: 0.3962026-09-21: 0.4082026-09-22: 0.4082026-09-23: 0.4082026-09-24: 0.4082026-09-25: 0.4082026-09-26: 0.4082026-09-27: 0.408 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abner, Philip · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abner, Philip · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.9%Curveball: 18.8%Slider: 16.5%Changeup: 7.6%Sinker: 0.3% FF57% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 57%CU 19%SL 17%CH 8%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abner, Philip · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.5 mphFF91 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mphSlider: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 80.6 mphSL81 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.3 mphCH83 mphSinker: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 89.5 mphSI90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.9% 109 99 limited sample
CB 20.9% 38 99 limited sample
SL 10.4% 19 100 limited sample
CH 8.2% 15 103 limited sample
SI 0.5% 1 64 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 73%, Slider 21%, Changeup 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.08
K% Δ-0.077
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.6----
Batters Faced136----
K%21.7%11.0% to 25.4%+/- 7.2%
BB%10.1%3.6% to 14.4%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%22.5%7.5% to 27.7%+/- 10.1%
HR/91.270.00 to 1.38+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3210.096 to 0.361+/- 0.133
Barrel% Allowed7.9%2.0% to 10.2%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.030.53 to 6.12+/- 2.80
FIP3.741.13 to 5.03+/- 1.95
WHIP1.3360.694 to 1.790+/- 0.548
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

11 career BF

xwOBA0.098
K%11.6%
BB%5.0%
Barrel3.1%
vs RHH

8 career BF

xwOBA0.109
K%10.2%
BB%5.5%
Barrel4.2%