Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Young, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
14.1% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.48
ERA current pace3.56
ERA rolling p503.80
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.53 3.13 3.80 4.47 5.08
FIP
3.65 4.07 4.54 5.01 5.43
K%
17.7% 18.6% 19.6% 20.7% 21.6%
BB%
7.6% 8.2% 8.8% 9.4% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
43
ERA3.56
68
BB%9.1%
48
K%19.8%
34
xwOBA allowed0.319
42
Barrel allowed6.9%
60 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
48
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
41
Whiff%22.5%
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Slider Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Young, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-13: 0.3222026-09-14: 0.3222026-09-18: 0.3232026-09-19: 0.3232026-09-20: 0.3232026-09-21: 0.3192026-09-22: 0.3192026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3192026-09-25: 0.3192026-09-26: 0.3192026-09-27: 0.319 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Young, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Young, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.1%Split-Finger: 18.9%Slider: 15.5%Sinker: 13.8%Curveball: 11.7% FF40% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FS 19%SL 16%SI 14%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Young, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.5 mphFS84 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.5 mphSL85 mphSinker: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 65″ drop, 75.2 mphCU75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.4% 574 105 qualified
SL 19.3% 220 100 qualified
SI 16.1% 183 102 limited sample
CB 14.3% 163 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Split-Finger 18%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.29
K% Δ-0.012
Sample153.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.5----
Batters Faced620----
K%21.0%14.1% to 24.2%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.2%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.3%15.7% to 24.0%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.490.77 to 2.21+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3240.259 to 0.356+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.6% to 11.3%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.853.50 to 6.76+/- 1.63
FIP4.783.35 to 5.63+/- 1.14
WHIP1.3901.101 to 1.760+/- 0.329
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%13.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

112 career BF

xwOBA0.225
K%15.5%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.2%