Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Sterner, Justin

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
19.6% to 30.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal4 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace6.12
ERA rolling p504.87
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.67 4.24 4.87 5.49 6.06
FIP
3.82 4.27 4.78 5.28 5.74
K%
19.9% 21.5% 23.3% 25.1% 26.8%
BB%
5.6% 6.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA6.12
9
BB%7.0%
77 +22 vs proj
K%22.0%
49 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
76 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
23
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed45.8%
7
Whiff%27.6%
85 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+104
80
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sterner, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.2922026-09-18: 0.2922026-09-19: 0.2922026-09-20: 0.2922026-09-21: 0.2922026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2922026-09-24: 0.2922026-09-25: 0.2922026-09-26: 0.2922026-09-27: 0.292 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sterner, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sterner, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.6%Cutter: 30.8%Sweeper: 29.6% FF40% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FC 31%ST 30% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sterner, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphCutter: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.4 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.2% 188 105 limited sample
FC 30.8% 144 104 limited sample
SL 29.1% 136 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Cutter 32%, Sweeper 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.23
K% Δ-0.025
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.3----
Batters Faced269----
K%24.5%19.6% to 30.3%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.5%5.6% to 11.8%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%24.9%21.2% to 32.0%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.421.01 to 2.18+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3140.264 to 0.341+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.2% to 12.2%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.892.13 to 5.47+/- 1.67
FIP4.252.96 to 5.66+/- 1.35
WHIP1.2540.947 to 1.584+/- 0.319
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

129 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%21.9%
BB%8.0%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

183 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%23.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.9%